A new Evaluation and Decision Making Framework Investigating the Elimination-by-Aspects Model in the Context of Transportation Projects' Investment Choices
Résumé
The Transportation Elimination-by-Aspects (TEBA) framework, a new evaluation and decision making
framework (and methodology) for large transportation projects, is proposed to elicit, structure and
quantify the preferences of stakeholder groups across project alternatives. The decision rule used for
group decision making within TEBA is the individual non-compensatory model of choice elimination by
aspects (EBA). TEBA is designed to bring out the decision rule employed by decision makers when
ranking the options presented, incorporate various criteria types and ease communication of relevant
information related to options and criteria for multiple stakeholder groups. It is a platform for
democratizing the decision making process. The TEBA framework was tested using a case study
investigating alternative land connections between Beirut and Damascus. Key results showed that (1)
stakeholders have employed EBA in making decisions, (2) a defined group of decision makers will rank
options differently when provided with modified sets of criteria, (3) the public sector and general public
groups ranked Impact on Employment among the top criteria, (4) the most important criterion per group
from EBA was as expected; (5) the EBA analysis suggested that only 3 to 4 criteria are significant in
reaching a decision; (6) aggregation of user assigned weights masked relative importance of criteria in
some cases; and (7) analysis of user assigned weights and Minimum Threshold (MT) values suggest
higher risk perception with increased criterion importance. Policy implications include recommendation
to reach out to stakeholders for input on decisions, including the “people” but refrain from relying on
criteria weights assigned by “experts” and reduce the “experts”’ role in decision making. Also, it is
recommended to model the decision making in a probabilistic framework rather than a deterministic “one
score” approach, seek to identify a consensus ranking, place particular attention on determining the values
of the criteria that emerged as “top” at the evaluation stage and continue to emphasize risk measures.
Keywords: Transportation Investment, Collective Decision Making, Cost Benefit Analysis, Elimination by Aspects,
Consensus Model / Joint Decision Making, Index of Dispersion, Behavioral Choice
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