Social polarization in the metropolitan area of Marseille. Modelling uncertain knowledge with probabilistic and possibilistic networks
Giovanni Fusco
(1)
,
Cristina Cao
(1)
,
Didier Dubois
(2, 3)
,
Henri Prade
(2, 3)
,
Floriane Scarella
(1)
,
Andrea G. B. Tettamanzi
(4)
1
ESPACE -
Études des Structures, des Processus d’Adaptation et des Changements de l’Espace
2 IRIT-ADRIA - Argumentation, Décision, Raisonnement, Incertitude et Apprentissage
3 CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
4 WIMMICS - Web-Instrumented Man-Machine Interactions, Communities and Semantics
2 IRIT-ADRIA - Argumentation, Décision, Raisonnement, Incertitude et Apprentissage
3 CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
4 WIMMICS - Web-Instrumented Man-Machine Interactions, Communities and Semantics
Giovanni Fusco
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 11181
- IdHAL : giovanni-fusco
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6171-5486
- IdRef : 077188705
Didier Dubois
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 743301
- IdHAL : didier-dubois
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6505-2536
- IdRef : 026839482
Henri Prade
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 743299
- IdHAL : henri-prade
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4586-8527
- IdRef : 053435710
Andrea G. B. Tettamanzi
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 3981
- IdHAL : andrea-g-b-tettamanzi
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8877-4654
- IdRef : 072248807
Résumé
A Bayesian Network and a Possibilistic Network are used to produce trend scenarios of social polarization in the metropolitan area of Marseille (France). Both scenarios are based on uncertain knowledge of relationships among variables and produce uncertain evaluations of future social polarization. We show that probabilistic models should not be used just to infer most probable outcomes, as these would give a fallacious impression of certain knowledge. The possibilistic model produces more uncertainty-laden results which are coherent with model uncertainties and respect elicited values of possibilities. Results of the two models converge when probability values are "degraded".
Format du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Résumé |
en
A Bayesian Network and a Possibilistic Network are used to produce trend scenarios of social polarization in the metropolitan area of Marseille (France). Both scenarios are based on uncertain knowledge of relationships among variables and produce uncertain evaluations of future social polarization. We show that probabilistic models should not be used just to infer most probable outcomes, as these would give a fallacious impression of certain knowledge. The possibilistic model produces more uncertainty-laden results which are coherent with model uncertainties and respect elicited values of possibilities. Results of the two models converge when probability values are "degraded".
|
Titre |
en
Social polarization in the metropolitan area of Marseille. Modelling uncertain knowledge with probabilistic and possibilistic networks
|
Auteur(s) |
Giovanni Fusco
1
, Cristina Cao
1
, Didier Dubois
2, 3
, Henri Prade
2, 3
, Floriane Scarella
1
, Andrea G. B. Tettamanzi
4
1
ESPACE -
Études des Structures, des Processus d’Adaptation et des Changements de l’Espace
( 561555 )
- 98, boulevard Édouard Herriot BP 3209 06204 Nice Cedex 03
- France
2
IRIT-ADRIA -
Argumentation, Décision, Raisonnement, Incertitude et Apprentissage
( 392282 )
- Institut de recherche en informatique de Toulouse - IRIT
118 Route de Narbonne
31062 Toulouse Cedex 9
- France
3
CNRS -
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
( 441569 )
- France
4
WIMMICS -
Web-Instrumented Man-Machine Interactions, Communities and Semantics
( 178918 )
- France
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Commentaire |
A preliminary version of this article was presented at ECTQG 2015 - XIX European Colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography, Bari (Italy), September 3rd-7th 2015
|
Page/Identifiant |
117-126
|
URL éditeur |
http://web.poliba.it/plurimondi/index.php/Plurimondi/article/view/394
|
Numéro |
17
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2015
|
Volume |
8
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Financement |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Social polarization, Uncertainty, Bayesian networks, Possibilistic networks, Marseille
|
Origine :
Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte
Loading...