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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2015

Environmental Hazard Prevention: Monitoring and Control of Landslide Risks in Mountainous Forests

Polina Lemenkova

Résumé

This paper analyses optimal methods for the estimation of the environmental hazards with a case study of landslides causing degradation of the mountainous forest ecosystems. The aim of this work is analysis of possible methods of estimating consequences caused by environmental hazards affecting forest ecosystems. Methodological advances have been made in regional applications of landslides risk studies , including specific research questions, such as vulnerability estimation, economic estimation of the losses, assessment of risk perception and social aspects of risk, cartographic aspects of risk mapping, as well as elaboration of the methodology of the overall risk assessment. The GIS-based mapping is undoubtedly indispensable tool for landslide risk studies, applicable both for spatial and temporal aspect of the hazard risk assessment. Many successful examples of landslide risk assessment and susceptibility analysis based on GIS mapping were done, as well as calculation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Various example of the thematic mapping of forest ecosystems are provided. For all that, the applications of the risk studies specifically for the mountainous forest landscapes mostly depend on hazard occurrence and data availability, accessibility, compatibility and integration. Usually, scientific reports focus on mountainous Alpine regions, which are well studied. The studies of risk assessment of natural hazards grew from the engineering branch of risk analysis and are being now rapidly developed since 1990s. The understanding of the concept "risk" varies at different authors, with the main difference in the degree of objectivity of risk concept: some authors define risk as independent and 'given' value, while others stress the influence of social factor on overall risk. According to the UNISDR, risk is a "probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injures, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions". When applying this general concept to the natural context, risk is defined as a product of hazard and vulnerability of the elements disposed to risk. Risk assessment is mainly focusing on risk management of natural hazards, i.e. with a main stress on human-environmental cooperation and coexistence. Management of risk aims to lessen the risk levels, and includes estimation of risk and actions to minimize overall risk level. The evaluation includes identification of main stakeholders and elements at risk, monetary values of losses, strengths, weaknesses of the elements at risk, significant factors in the environment, outcomes expected, established risk criteria. Risk identification involves examining all sources of risk from the perspective of all stakeholders. There are different methods of qualitative and quantitative assessment of landslide risk, including risk analysis, which aims at the identification of hazard consequences and defining possible endangered regions. The level of risk is the combination of the likelihood of a risk occurring and the consequences if it does occur. In the risk estimation there are proposed levels of risk identified for landslide hazards: intolerable, tolerable and acceptable. The results of risk analysis and assessment can considerably lessen potential consequences of landslide hazards. The landslide hazard is expressed as a limited probability that a landslide occurs within a given period of time. There are proposed method of the recurrent intervals for the definition of the landslide hazard zones. Methods of predicting dynamic movements of the landslides and estimating their temporal probability are not well elaborated yet and are hardly available. The assessment of temporal probability of landslides is very difficult to perform. The risk of landslide processes is strongly determined by the wide variety of different factors, among which is the slope angle. Other factors, associated with landslides, are geological structure, material characteristics, water pressure, topography, river erosion, and weathering. These are also important triggers in landslide formation and movements. All objects that can be affected by the landslides are usually defined as elements at risk: it can be humans and valuable objects located in the endangered area. It is assumed that elements at risk include buildings, infrastructure, services, property, population and environment. The population at risk is defined as a number of people present in dangerous areas, whose losses are expressed as health injury and deaths. The risk for population is estimated as possible losses of lives. The sustainable functioning of unique and sensitive forest ecosystems is highly adjusted towards climatic-environmental settings. The proper risk assessment of possible hazards should be included into the monitoring program for better understanding of ecosystem functioning and avoiding deforestation. Current paper contributed towards risk assessment studies by systematization of the existing methodology recommended for the environmental hazard assessment.
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Dates et versions

hal-01973514 , version 1 (11-01-2019)

Licence

CC0 - Transfert dans le Domaine Public

Identifiants

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Polina Lemenkova. Environmental Hazard Prevention: Monitoring and Control of Landslide Risks in Mountainous Forests. Actual Problems in the Development of Forestry, Vologda State University, Dec 2015, Vologda, Russia. pp.20-21, ⟨10.6084/m9.figshare.7210376⟩. ⟨hal-01973514⟩
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