The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions
Enli Wang
(1)
,
Pierre Martres
(2)
,
Zhigan Zhao
(3, 1)
,
Frank Ewert
(4, 5)
,
Andrea Maiorano
(2)
,
Reimund P. Rötter
(6)
,
Bruce A. Kimball
(7)
,
Michael J. Ottman
(8)
,
Gerard W. Wall
(7)
,
Jeffrey W. White
(7)
,
Matthew P. Reynolds
(9)
,
Phillip D. Alderman
(9)
,
Pramod K. Aggarwal
(10)
,
Jakarat Anothai
(11)
,
Bruno Basso
(12)
,
Christian Biernath
(13)
,
Davide Cammarano
(14)
,
Andrew J. Challinor
(15, 16)
,
Giacomo de Sanctis
(17)
,
Jordi Doltra
(18)
,
Benjamin Dumont
(12)
,
Elias Fereres
(19, 20)
,
Margarita Garcia-Vila
(19, 20)
,
Sebastian Gayler
(21)
,
Gerrit Hoogenboom
(22)
,
Leslie A. Hunt
(23)
,
Roberto C. Izaurralde
(24, 25)
,
Mohamed Jabloun
(26)
,
Curtis D. Jones
(24)
,
Kurt-Christian Kersebaum
(5)
,
Ann-Kristin Koehler
(15)
,
Lei Liu
(27)
,
Christoph Müller
(28)
,
Soora Kumar Naresh
(29)
,
Claas Nendel
(5)
,
Garry O'Leary
(30)
,
Jørgen E. Olesen
(26)
,
Taru Palosuo
(31)
,
Eckart Priesack
(13)
,
Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
(4)
,
Dominique Ripoche
(32)
,
Alex C Ruane
(33)
,
Mikhail A. Semenov
(34)
,
Iurii Shcherbak
(12)
,
Claudio O. Stöckle
(35)
,
Pierre Stratonovitch
(34)
,
Thilo Streck
(21)
,
Iwan Supit
(36)
,
Fulu Tao
(31, 37)
,
Peter Thorburn
(38)
,
Katharina Waha
(28)
,
Daniel Wallach
(39)
,
Zhimin Wang
(40)
,
Joost Wolf
(36)
,
Yan Zhu
(41)
,
Senthold Asseng
(14)
1
Agriculture and Food
2 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
3 CAU - China Agricultural University
4 Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
5 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
6 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
7 Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
8 The School of Plant Sciences
9 Global Wheat Program
10 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change
11 WSU - Washington State University
12 Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station
13 BIOP - Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology
14 UF|ABE - Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
15 University of Leeds
16 CCAFS - CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
17 EFSA - European Food Safety Authority
18 CIFA - Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
19 Dep. Agronomia
20 CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]
21 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
22 AgWeatherNet Program
23 Department of Plant Agriculture
24 Department of Geographical Sciences
25 Texas A and M AgriLife Research
26 Department of Agroecology
27 Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production
28 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
29 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
30 Landscape and Water Sciences
31 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
32 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
33 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
34 Computational and Systems Biology Department
35 Biological Systems Engineering
36 PPS and WSG &CALM
37 CAAS - Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
38 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra]
39 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
40 College of Agronomy and Biotechnology
41 National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture
2 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
3 CAU - China Agricultural University
4 Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
5 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
6 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
7 Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
8 The School of Plant Sciences
9 Global Wheat Program
10 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change
11 WSU - Washington State University
12 Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station
13 BIOP - Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology
14 UF|ABE - Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
15 University of Leeds
16 CCAFS - CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
17 EFSA - European Food Safety Authority
18 CIFA - Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
19 Dep. Agronomia
20 CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]
21 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
22 AgWeatherNet Program
23 Department of Plant Agriculture
24 Department of Geographical Sciences
25 Texas A and M AgriLife Research
26 Department of Agroecology
27 Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production
28 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
29 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
30 Landscape and Water Sciences
31 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
32 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
33 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
34 Computational and Systems Biology Department
35 Biological Systems Engineering
36 PPS and WSG &CALM
37 CAAS - Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
38 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra]
39 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
40 College of Agronomy and Biotechnology
41 National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture
Davide Cammarano
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 968228
Andrew J. Challinor
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 968229
Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 784208
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1555-0537
Lei Liu
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 769987
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7171-1454
Christoph Müller
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772079
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2234-6902
Claas Nendel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772081
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7608-9097
Mikhail A. Semenov
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 774453
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1561-7113
Peter Thorburn
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 973292
Yan Zhu
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 768149
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7342-3782
- IdRef : 120749734
Résumé
Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.
Format du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions
|
Résumé |
en
Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.
|
Auteur(s) |
Enli Wang
1
, Pierre Martres
2
, Zhigan Zhao
3, 1
, Frank Ewert
4, 5
, Andrea Maiorano
2
, Reimund P. Rötter
6
, Bruce A. Kimball
7
, Michael J. Ottman
8
, Gerard W. Wall
7
, Jeffrey W. White
7
, Matthew P. Reynolds
9
, Phillip D. Alderman
9
, Pramod K. Aggarwal
10
, Jakarat Anothai
11
, Bruno Basso
12
, Christian Biernath
13
, Davide Cammarano
14
, Andrew J. Challinor
15, 16
, Giacomo de Sanctis
17
, Jordi Doltra
18
, Benjamin Dumont
12
, Elias Fereres
19, 20
, Margarita Garcia-Vila
19, 20
, Sebastian Gayler
21
, Gerrit Hoogenboom
22
, Leslie A. Hunt
23
, Roberto C. Izaurralde
24, 25
, Mohamed Jabloun
26
, Curtis D. Jones
24
, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum
5
, Ann-Kristin Koehler
15
, Lei Liu
27
, Christoph Müller
28
, Soora Kumar Naresh
29
, Claas Nendel
5
, Garry O'Leary
30
, Jørgen E. Olesen
26
, Taru Palosuo
31
, Eckart Priesack
13
, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei
4
, Dominique Ripoche
32
, Alex C Ruane
33
, Mikhail A. Semenov
34
, Iurii Shcherbak
12
, Claudio O. Stöckle
35
, Pierre Stratonovitch
34
, Thilo Streck
21
, Iwan Supit
36
, Fulu Tao
31, 37
, Peter Thorburn
38
, Katharina Waha
28
, Daniel Wallach
39
, Zhimin Wang
40
, Joost Wolf
36
, Yan Zhu
41
, Senthold Asseng
14
1
Agriculture and Food
( 472993 )
- Australie
2
LEPSE -
Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
( 37835 )
- Campus INRA / Montpellier SupAgro - 2, place Pierre Viala - 34060 Montpellier Cedex 2
Bat.7 IBIP
- France
3
CAU -
China Agricultural University
( 300813 )
- 17 Tsinghua East Road, Beijing, 100083, P. R. China
- Chine
4
Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
( 423691 )
- Allemagne
5
ZALF -
Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
( 303023 )
- Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg
- Allemagne
6
Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
( 1065644 )
- Wilhelmsplatz 1, 37073 Göttingen, Allemagne
- Allemagne
7
Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
( 426277 )
- États-Unis
8
The School of Plant Sciences
( 513691 )
- États-Unis
9
Global Wheat Program
( 513692 )
- Mexique
10
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change
( 514659 )
- Danemark
11
WSU -
Washington State University
( 303893 )
- Pullman, WA
- États-Unis
12
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station
( 513698 )
- États-Unis
13
BIOP -
Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology
( 442018 )
- Ingolstaedter Landstr. 1, D-85764 Oberschleißheim
- Allemagne
14
UF|ABE -
Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
( 262725 )
- University of Florida, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences,
1741 Museum Road, Gainesville, Florida 32611-0570
- États-Unis
15
University of Leeds
( 123346 )
- Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT
- Royaume-Uni
16
CCAFS -
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
( 508858 )
- Inde
17
EFSA -
European Food Safety Authority
( 567488 )
- Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments
Via Carlo Magno 1A
43126 Parma
- Italie
18
CIFA -
Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
( 508860 )
- Espagne
19
Dep. Agronomia
( 513695 )
- Espagne
20
CSIC -
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]
( 106380 )
- Serrano 117, 28006, Madrid
- Espagne
21
Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
( 255736 )
- Stuttgart
- Allemagne
22
AgWeatherNet Program
( 513904 )
- États-Unis
23
Department of Plant Agriculture
( 423705 )
- Canada
24
Department of Geographical Sciences
( 423707 )
- États-Unis
25
Texas A and M AgriLife Research
( 1035302 )
- États-Unis
26
Department of Agroecology
( 255689 )
- Tjele
- Danemark
27
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production
( 508765 )
- Chine
28
PIK -
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
( 232065 )
- Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam
- Allemagne
29
CESCRA -
Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
( 444251 )
- Inde
30
Landscape and Water Sciences
( 508861 )
- Australie
31
LUKE -
Natural Resources Institute Finland
( 431710 )
- PO Box 68, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland
- Finlande
32
AGROCLIM -
Agroclim
( 37672 )
- INRA Domaine Saint-Paul - Site Agroparc 228 route de l'Aérodrome CS40509 84914 AVIGNON CEDEX 9
- France
33
GISS -
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
( 251994 )
- 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025
- États-Unis
34
Computational and Systems Biology Department
( 423713 )
- Royaume-Uni
35
Biological Systems Engineering
( 426272 )
- États-Unis
36
PPS and WSG &CALM
( 513699 )
- Pays-Bas
37
CAAS -
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
( 440438 )
- Beijing, China
- Chine
38
CSIRO -
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra]
( 300095 )
- GPO Box 1700, Canberra ACT 2600
- Australie
39
AGIR -
AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
( 74637 )
- Centre de Recherches INRA de Toulouse Chemin de Borderouge 31326 CASTANET TOLOSAN
- France
40
College of Agronomy and Biotechnology
( 164344 )
- Chongqing
- Chine
41
National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture
( 449530 )
- Chine
|
URL éditeur |
https://www.nature.com/nplants/
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Projet(s) Européen(s) |
|
Date de publication |
2017
|
Page/Identifiant |
833-833
|
Volume |
3
|
Numéro |
10
|
Commentaire |
Article corrigé:10.1038/s41477-017-0032-6 Article original (Nature Plants, 3 (8)): 10.1038/nplants.2017.102
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Audience |
Non spécifiée
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Voir aussi |
|
DOI | 10.1038/s41477-017-0032-6 |
ProdINRA | 420194 |
Pubmed Id | 28955035 |
UT key WOS | 000406850200001 |
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