Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production
S. Asseng
(1)
,
F. Ewert
(2)
,
Pierre Martres
(3)
,
R. P. Rotter
(4)
,
D. B. Lobell
(5)
,
D. Cammarano
(1)
,
B. A. Kimball
(6)
,
M. J. Ottman
(7)
,
G. W. Wall
(6)
,
J. W. White
(6)
,
M. P. Reynolds
(8)
,
P. D. Alderman
(8)
,
P. V. V. Prasad
(9)
,
P. K. Aggarwal
(10)
,
J. Anothai
(11)
,
B. Basso
(12, 13)
,
C. Biernath
(14)
,
A. J. Challinor
(15, 16)
,
Giacomo de Sanctis
(17)
,
J. Doltra
(18)
,
E. Fereres
(19, 20)
,
M. Garcia-Vila
(19, 20)
,
S. Gayler
(21)
,
G. Hoogenboom
(22)
,
L. A. Hunt
(23)
,
R. C. Izaurralde
(24, 25)
,
M. Jabloun
(26)
,
C. D. Jones
(24)
,
K. C. Kersebaum
(27)
,
A-K. Koehl
(16)
,
C. Müller
(28)
,
S. Naresh Kumar
(29)
,
C. Nendel
(30)
,
G. O'Leary
(31)
,
J.E. Olesen
(26)
,
T. Palosuo
(4)
,
E. Priesack
(14)
,
E. Eyshi Rezaei
(2)
,
A. C. Ruane
(32)
,
M. A. Semenov
(33)
,
I. Shcherbak
(34)
,
C. Stoöckle
(22)
,
P. Stratonovitch
(35)
,
T. Streck
(36)
,
I. Supit
(37)
,
F. Tao
(38, 4)
,
P. J. Thorburn
(39)
,
K. Waha
(28)
,
E. Wang
(39)
,
Daniel D. Wallach
(40)
,
I. Wolf
(37)
,
Z. Zhao
(39, 41)
,
Y. Zhu
(42)
1
UF|ABE -
Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
2 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
3 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
4 Plant Production Research
5 Stanford University
6 Agricultural Research Service / US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center
7 The School of Plant Sciences
8 CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
9 Department of Agronomy
10 CCAFS - CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
11 WSU - Washington State University
12 Department of geological sciences
13 KBS - W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
14 Institute of Soil Ecology
15 CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security
16 University of Leeds
17 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
18 CIFA - Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
19 Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
20 Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]
21 WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster
22 Biological Systems Engineering
23 Department of Plant Agriculture
24 Department of Geographical Sciences
25 Texas A&M University System
26 Department of Agroecology
27 Institute of Landscape System Analysis
28 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
29 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
30 Institute of landscape systems analysis
31 Department of Environment and Primary Industries
32 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
33 Computational and Systems Biology Department
34 Department of Geological Sciences
35 Computational and Systems Biology
36 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
37 Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science
38 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
39 Agriculture Flagship
40 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
41 Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology
42 NAU - Nanjing Agricultural University
2 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
3 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
4 Plant Production Research
5 Stanford University
6 Agricultural Research Service / US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center
7 The School of Plant Sciences
8 CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
9 Department of Agronomy
10 CCAFS - CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
11 WSU - Washington State University
12 Department of geological sciences
13 KBS - W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
14 Institute of Soil Ecology
15 CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security
16 University of Leeds
17 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
18 CIFA - Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
19 Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
20 Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]
21 WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster
22 Biological Systems Engineering
23 Department of Plant Agriculture
24 Department of Geographical Sciences
25 Texas A&M University System
26 Department of Agroecology
27 Institute of Landscape System Analysis
28 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
29 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
30 Institute of landscape systems analysis
31 Department of Environment and Primary Industries
32 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
33 Computational and Systems Biology Department
34 Department of Geological Sciences
35 Computational and Systems Biology
36 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
37 Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science
38 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
39 Agriculture Flagship
40 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
41 Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology
42 NAU - Nanjing Agricultural University
Résumé
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
Domaines
Sciences du Vivant [q-bio] Biologie végétale Sciences de l'environnement Sciences de l'Homme et SociétéFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production
|
Résumé |
en
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
|
Auteur(s) |
S. Asseng
1
, F. Ewert
2
, Pierre Martres
3
, R. P. Rotter
4
, D. B. Lobell
5
, D. Cammarano
1
, B. A. Kimball
6
, M. J. Ottman
7
, G. W. Wall
6
, J. W. White
6
, M. P. Reynolds
8
, P. D. Alderman
8
, P. V. V. Prasad
9
, P. K. Aggarwal
10
, J. Anothai
11
, B. Basso
12, 13
, C. Biernath
14
, A. J. Challinor
15, 16
, Giacomo de Sanctis
17
, J. Doltra
18
, E. Fereres
19, 20
, M. Garcia-Vila
19, 20
, S. Gayler
21
, G. Hoogenboom
22
, L. A. Hunt
23
, R. C. Izaurralde
24, 25
, M. Jabloun
26
, C. D. Jones
24
, K. C. Kersebaum
27
, A-K. Koehl
16
, C. Müller
28
, S. Naresh Kumar
29
, C. Nendel
30
, G. O'Leary
31
, J.E. Olesen
26
, T. Palosuo
4
, E. Priesack
14
, E. Eyshi Rezaei
2
, A. C. Ruane
32
, M. A. Semenov
33
, I. Shcherbak
34
, C. Stoöckle
22
, P. Stratonovitch
35
, T. Streck
36
, I. Supit
37
, F. Tao
38, 4
, P. J. Thorburn
39
, K. Waha
28
, E. Wang
39
, Daniel D. Wallach
40
, I. Wolf
37
, Z. Zhao
39, 41
, Y. Zhu
42
1
UF|ABE -
Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
( 262725 )
- University of Florida, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences,
1741 Museum Road, Gainesville, Florida 32611-0570
- États-Unis
2
INRES -
Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
( 211676 )
- Katzenburgweg 1, D-53115 Bonn
- Allemagne
3
GDEC -
Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
( 133378 )
- Site INRAE Crouël : 5, Chemin de Beaulieu, 63039 Clermont-Ferrand // Site Clermont : Campus Universitaire des Cézeaux, TSA 60026, 1 Impasse Amélie Murat, 63178 Aubière
- France
4
Plant Production Research
( 423692 )
- SF
5
Stanford University
( 73500 )
- 450 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305-2004
- États-Unis
6
Agricultural Research Service / US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center
( 426823 )
- États-Unis
7
The School of Plant Sciences
( 513691 )
- États-Unis
8
CIMMYT -
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
( 239583 )
- Apdo. Postal 6-641 06600 Mexico City Mexique
- Mexique
9
Department of Agronomy
( 260076 )
- West Lafayette
- États-Unis
10
CCAFS -
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
( 508858 )
- Inde
11
WSU -
Washington State University
( 303893 )
- Pullman, WA
- États-Unis
12
Department of geological sciences
( 262728 )
- East Lansing
- États-Unis
13
KBS -
W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
( 63601 )
- 3700 East Gull Lake Drive, Hickory Corners, MI 49060
- États-Unis
14
Institute of Soil Ecology
( 426260 )
- Allemagne
15
CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security
( 423699 )
- Colombie
16
University of Leeds
( 123346 )
- Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT
- Royaume-Uni
17
AGROCLIM -
Agroclim
( 37672 )
- INRA Domaine Saint-Paul - Site Agroparc 228 route de l'Aérodrome CS40509 84914 AVIGNON CEDEX 9
- France
18
CIFA -
Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
( 508860 )
- Espagne
19
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
( 417368 )
- Parque Technologica de Ciencias de la Salud - Av. del Conocimiento, s/n 18100 Armilla, Granada
- Espagne
20
Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]
( 154991 )
- Avd. Medina Azahara, 5 14071 Córdoba
- Espagne
21
WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster
( 426265 )
- Allemagne
22
Biological Systems Engineering
( 426272 )
- États-Unis
23
Department of Plant Agriculture
( 423705 )
- Canada
24
Department of Geographical Sciences
( 423707 )
- États-Unis
25
Texas A&M University System
( 567074 )
- États-Unis
26
Department of Agroecology
( 255689 )
- Tjele
- Danemark
27
Institute of Landscape System Analysis
( 444248 )
- Allemagne
28
PIK -
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
( 232065 )
- Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam
- Allemagne
29
CESCRA -
Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
( 444251 )
- Inde
30
Institute of landscape systems analysis
( 262740 )
- Muencheberg
- Allemagne
31
Department of Environment and Primary Industries
( 427342 )
- Australie
32
GISS -
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
( 251994 )
- 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025
- États-Unis
33
Computational and Systems Biology Department
( 423713 )
- Royaume-Uni
34
Department of Geological Sciences
( 19456 )
- États-Unis
35
Computational and Systems Biology
( 458004 )
- Royaume-Uni
36
Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
( 255736 )
- Stuttgart
- Allemagne
37
Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science
( 444263 )
- Pays-Bas
38
IGSNRR -
Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
( 262741 )
- 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China
- Chine
39
Agriculture Flagship
( 430861 )
- Australie
40
AGIR -
AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
( 74637 )
- Centre de Recherches INRA de Toulouse Chemin de Borderouge 31326 CASTANET TOLOSAN
- France
41
Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology
( 551083 )
- Chine
42
NAU -
Nanjing Agricultural University
( 462271 )
- Nanjing 210095 Jiangsu Province P.R. China
- Chine
|
Date de publication |
2015
|
Volume |
5
|
Page/Identifiant |
143-147
|
Numéro |
2
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Financement |
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Indexation contrôlée |
|
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE2470 |
ProdINRA | 320189 |
UT key WOS | 000350327700025 |
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