Format du dépôt |
Notice |
Type de dépôt |
Pré-publication, Document de travail |
Titre |
en
Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing
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Résumé |
en
The health crisis caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus has led many countries to implement drastic social distancing rules. By reducing the quantity of labor, social distancing in turn leads to a drop in output which is difficult to quantify without taking into account relationships between sectors. Starting from a standard model of production networks, we analyze the sectoral effects of the shock in the case of France. We estimate that six weeks of social distancing brings GDP down by 5.6%. Apart from sectors directly concerned by social distancing mesures, those whose value added decreases the most are upstream sectors, i.e. sectors most distant from final demand. The same exercise is carried out for other European countries, taking into account national differences in sectoral composition and propensity to telework. Finally, we analyze the economic impact of selectively phasing out social distancing by sector, region or age group.
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Auteur(s)
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Jean-Noël Barrot
1
, Basile Grassi
2
, Julien Sauvagnat
3
1
GREGH -
Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC
( 1738 )
- 1, avenue de la Libération 78351 JOUY EN JOSAS CEDEX
- France
-
Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales ( 105633 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR2959 ( 441569 )
2
Bocconi University [Milan, Italy]
( 330935 )
- Via Sarfatti, 25 Milano
- Italie
3
TSE-R -
Toulouse School of Economics
( 93477 )
- Manufacture de Tabacs, 21 allées de Brienne 31000 Toulouse
- France
-
Université Toulouse Capitole ( 81148 )
;
-
Université de Toulouse ( 443875 )
;
-
Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique UMR1415 ( 92114 )
;
-
École des hautes études en sciences sociales ( 99539 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR5314 ( 441569 )
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Langue du document |
Anglais
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Public visé |
Scientifique
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Domaine(s) |
-
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Gestion et management
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Mots-clés (JEL) |
-
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles
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I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I10 - General
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I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I18 - Government Policy • Regulation • Public Health
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H - Public Economics/H.H1 - Structure and Scope of Government
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L - Industrial Organization/L.L1 - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance/L.L1.L14 - Transactional Relationships • Contracts and Reputation • Networks
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy/E.E2.E23 - Production
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Référence interne |
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Collaboration/Projet |
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HEC Research Paper Series
|
Voir aussi |
-
https://ssrn.com/abstract=3569446
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Mots-clés |
en
COVID-19, Social distancing, Production networks
|
DOI |
10.2139/ssrn.3569446 |