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Article dans une revue PLoS ONE Année : 2021

Tracking the dynamics and allocating tests for COVID-19 in real-time: An acceleration index with an application to French age groups and départements

Résumé

An acceleration index is proposed as a novel indicator to track the dynamics of COVID-19 in real-time. Using data on cases and tests in France for the period between the first and second lock-downs-May 13 to October 25, 2020-our acceleration index shows that the pandemic resurgence can be dated to begin around July 7. It uncovers that the pandemic acceleration was stronger than national average for the [59-68] and especially the 69 and older age groups since early September, the latter being associated with the strongest acceleration index, as of October 25. In contrast, acceleration among the [19-28] age group was the lowest and is about half that of the [69-78]. In addition, we propose an algorithm to allocate tests among French "dé partements" (roughly counties), based on both the acceleration index and the feedback effect of testing. Our acceleration-based allocation differs from the actual distribution over French territories, which is population-based. We argue that both our acceleration index and our allocation algorithm are useful tools to guide public health policies as France might possibly enter a third lock-down period with indeterminate duration.
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Dates et versions

hal-03416163, version 1 (05-11-2021)

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Christelle Baunez, Mickael Degoulet, Stéphane Luchini, Patrick A Pintus, Miriam Teschl. Tracking the dynamics and allocating tests for COVID-19 in real-time: An acceleration index with an application to French age groups and départements. PLoS ONE, 2021, 16 (6), pp.e0252443. ⟨10.1371/journal.pone.0252443⟩. ⟨hal-03416163⟩
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