Vote, popularity, economic conditions and French legislative elections
Vote, popularité, conditions économiques et élections législatives françaises
Résumé
The purpose of this article is to build a model that explains and forecasts the result of the firstround vote of the French legislative elections and the results in seats after the second round per department and at the national level. This model highlights the influence of a popularity rating between the Left and the Right; and the economic conditions (the unemployment rate, the GDP growth rate, the inflation rate with more ambiguous results) to account for the first-round vote for the Left in the French legislative elections. Its forecasts for the elections of the past (1986-2007) are satisfactory and we make ex ante forecasts in vote and seats for the 2012 French legislative elections. We make some preliminary ex ante forecast in vote and in seats for the 2017 French legislative election.
L'objectif de cet article est de construire un modèle qui explique et prévoit le résultat du premier tour du vote aux élections législatives françaises and les résultats du second tour en sièges par département et au niveau national.
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