Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe
Kathleen Mccoll
(1, 2)
,
Marion Debin
(3)
,
Cecile Souty
(3)
,
Caroline Guerrisi
(3)
,
Clement Turbelin
(3)
,
Alessandra Falchi
(4)
,
Isabelle Bonmarin
(5)
,
Daniela Paolotti
(6)
,
Chinelo Obi
(7)
,
Jim Duggan
(8)
,
Yamir Moreno
(9)
,
Ania Wisniak
(10)
,
Antoine Flahault
(10)
,
Thierry Blanchon
(3)
,
Vittoria Colizza
(3)
,
Jocelyn Raude
(1, 2, 11)
1
EHESP -
École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP]
2 UVE - Unité des Virus Emergents
3 iPLESP - Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique
4 EA Bioscope Corse Méditerranée : Dynamique des infections virales en milieu insulaire
5 Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France]
6 ISI - Data Science Laboratory
7 Public Health England [London]
8 NUI Galway - National University of Ireland [Galway]
9 University of Zaragoza - Universidad de Zaragoza [Zaragoza]
10 UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva
11 SHS - Département des sciences humaines et sociales
2 UVE - Unité des Virus Emergents
3 iPLESP - Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique
4 EA Bioscope Corse Méditerranée : Dynamique des infections virales en milieu insulaire
5 Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France]
6 ISI - Data Science Laboratory
7 Public Health England [London]
8 NUI Galway - National University of Ireland [Galway]
9 University of Zaragoza - Universidad de Zaragoza [Zaragoza]
10 UNIGE - Université de Genève = University of Geneva
11 SHS - Département des sciences humaines et sociales
Kathleen Mccoll
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 764922
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0799-1460
Marion Debin
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 754402
- IdHAL : marion-debin
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5146-7642
Cecile Souty
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1110805
Caroline Guerrisi
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1122905
Clement Turbelin
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 748536
- IdHAL : clement-turbelin
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5074-9541
Alessandra Falchi
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1061410
Isabelle Bonmarin
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 764922
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0799-1460
Yamir Moreno
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 768072
- ORCID : 0000-0002-0895-1893
Ania Wisniak
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 768072
- ORCID : 0000-0002-0895-1893
Thierry Blanchon
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1097516
Vittoria Colizza
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 908587
Résumé
Unrealistic optimism, the underestimation of one’s risk of experiencing harm, has been investigated extensively to understand better and predict behavioural responses to health threats. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a relative dearth of research existed in this domain regarding epidemics, which is surprising considering that this optimistic bias has been associated with a lack of engagement in protective behaviours critical in fighting twenty-first-century, emergent, infectious diseases. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by investigating whether people demonstrated optimism bias during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, how this changed over time, and whether unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with protective measures. Taking advantage of a pre-existing international participative influenza surveillance network (n = 12,378), absolute and comparative unrealistic optimism were measured at three epidemic stages (pre-, early, peak), and across four countries—France, Italy, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Despite differences in culture and health response, similar patterns were observed across all four countries. The prevalence of unrealistic optimism appears to be influenced by the particular epidemic context. Paradoxically, whereas absolute unrealistic optimism decreased over time, comparative unrealistic optimism increased, suggesting that whilst people became increasingly accurate in assessing their personal risk, they nonetheless overestimated that for others. Comparative unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with the adoption of protective behaviours, which is worrying, given that these preventive measures are critical in tackling the spread and health burden of COVID-19. It is hoped these findings will inspire further research into sociocognitive mechanisms involved in risk appraisal.
Format du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe
|
Résumé |
en
Unrealistic optimism, the underestimation of one’s risk of experiencing harm, has been investigated extensively to understand better and predict behavioural responses to health threats. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a relative dearth of research existed in this domain regarding epidemics, which is surprising considering that this optimistic bias has been associated with a lack of engagement in protective behaviours critical in fighting twenty-first-century, emergent, infectious diseases. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by investigating whether people demonstrated optimism bias during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, how this changed over time, and whether unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with protective measures. Taking advantage of a pre-existing international participative influenza surveillance network (n = 12,378), absolute and comparative unrealistic optimism were measured at three epidemic stages (pre-, early, peak), and across four countries—France, Italy, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Despite differences in culture and health response, similar patterns were observed across all four countries. The prevalence of unrealistic optimism appears to be influenced by the particular epidemic context. Paradoxically, whereas absolute unrealistic optimism decreased over time, comparative unrealistic optimism increased, suggesting that whilst people became increasingly accurate in assessing their personal risk, they nonetheless overestimated that for others. Comparative unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with the adoption of protective behaviours, which is worrying, given that these preventive measures are critical in tackling the spread and health burden of COVID-19. It is hoped these findings will inspire further research into sociocognitive mechanisms involved in risk appraisal.
|
Auteur(s) |
Kathleen Mccoll
1, 2
, Marion Debin
3
, Cecile Souty
3
, Caroline Guerrisi
3
, Clement Turbelin
3
, Alessandra Falchi
4
, Isabelle Bonmarin
5
, Daniela Paolotti
6
, Chinelo Obi
7
, Jim Duggan
8
, Yamir Moreno
9
, Ania Wisniak
10
, Antoine Flahault
10
, Thierry Blanchon
3
, Vittoria Colizza
3
, Jocelyn Raude
1, 2, 11
1
EHESP -
École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP]
( 301986 )
- 15, avenue du Pr. Léon Bernard - 35043 Rennes Cedex
- France
2
UVE -
Unité des Virus Emergents
( 513400 )
- Faculté de Médecine
27, boulevard Jean Moulin
13385 Marseille cedex 5
- France
3
iPLESP -
Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique
( 542132 )
- 56, boulevard Vincent Auriol - CS 81393 - 75646 Paris Cedex 13
- France
4
EA Bioscope Corse Méditerranée : Dynamique des infections virales en milieu insulaire
( 432809 )
- Campus Grimaldi - 20250 Corte
- France
5
Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France]
( 461591 )
- Santé publique France (siège social)
12, rue du Val d'Osne 94415 Saint-Maurice cedex
- France
6
ISI -
Data Science Laboratory
( 103758 )
- Turin
- Italie
7
Public Health England [London]
( 475974 )
- Wellington House , 133-155 Waterloo Road, London SE1 8UG
- Royaume-Uni
8
NUI Galway -
National University of Ireland [Galway]
( 373032 )
- Irlande
9
University of Zaragoza - Universidad de Zaragoza [Zaragoza]
( 95355 )
- Pedro Cerbuna,12
50009 Zaragoza - España
- Espagne
10
UNIGE -
Université de Genève = University of Geneva
( 154620 )
- 24 rue du Général-Dufour CH - 1211 Genève 4
Suisse
- Suisse
11
SHS -
Département des sciences humaines et sociales
( 460327 )
- 15 avenue du Professeur Léon-Bernard - 35043 Rennes cedex
- France
|
Date de publication électronique |
2021-12-31
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Date de publication |
2021
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Volume |
19
|
Numéro |
1
|
Page/Identifiant |
436
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
risk perception, optimism bias, unrealistic optimism, COVID-19, pandemic, Europe
|
DOI | 10.3390/ijerph19010436 |
Origine :
Publication financée par une institution
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