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Article Dans Une Revue Nature Année : 2022

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Heidi Kreibich (1) , Anne van Loon (2) , Kai Schröter (1, 3) , Philip J. Ward (2) , Maurizio Mazzoleni (2) , Nivedita Sairam (1) , Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu (4) , Svetlana Agafonova (5) , Amir Aghakouchak (6) , Hafzullah Aksoy (7) , Camila Alvarez-Garreton (8, 9) , Blanca Aznar (10) , Laila Balkhi (11) , Marlies H. Barendrecht (2) , Sylvain Biancamaria (12) , Liduin Bos-Burgering (13) , Chris Bradley (14) , Yus Budiyono (15) , Wouter Buytaert (16) , Lucinda Capewell (14) , Hayley Carlson (11) , Yonca Cavus (7, 17, 18) , Anaïs Couasnon (2) , Gemma Coxon (19, 20) , Ioannis Daliakopoulos (21) , Marleen C. de Ruiter (2) , Claire Delus (22) , Mathilde Erfurt (18) , Giuseppe Esposito (23) , Didier François (22) , Frédéric Frappart (24) , Jim Freer (19, 20, 11) , Natalia Frolova (5) , Animesh K. Gain (25, 26) , Manolis Grillakis (27) , Jordi Oriol Grima (10) , Diego A. Guzmán (28) , Laurie S. Huning (6, 29) , Monica Ionita (30, 31, 32) , Maxim Kharlamov (5, 33) , Dao Nguyen Khoi (34) , Natalie Kieboom (35) , Maria Kireeva (5) , Aristeidis Koutroulis (36) , Waldo Lavado-Casimiro (37) , Hong-Yi Li (4) , María Carmen Llasat (38) , David Macdonald (39) , Johanna Mård (40, 41) , Hannah Mathew-Richards (35) , Andrew Mckenzie (39) , Alfonso Mejia (42) , Eduardo Mario Mendiondo (43) , Marjolein Mens (44) , Shifteh Mobini (45, 46) , Guilherme Samprogna Mohor (47) , Viorica Nagavciuc (30, 32) , Thanh Ngo-Duc (48) , Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh (49) , Pham Thi Thao Nhi (50) , Olga Petrucci (23) , Hong Quan Nguyen (51) , Pere Quintana-Seguí (52) , Saman Razavi (11) , Elena Ridolfi (53) , Jannik Riegel (54) , Md Shibly Sadik (55) , Elisa Savelli (40, 41) , Alexey Sazonov (5, 33) , Sanjib Sharma (42) , Johanna Sörensen (46) , Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza (43) , Kerstin Stahl (18) , Max Steinhausen (1) , Michael Stoelzle (18) , Wiwiana Szalińska (56) , Qiuhong Tang (57) , Fuqiang Tian (58) , Tamara Tokarczyk (56) , Carolina Tovar (59) , Thi van Thu Tran (49) , Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort (60) , Michelle T. H. van Vliet (61) , Sergiy Vorogushyn (1) , Thorsten Wagener (20, 62, 19) , Yueling Wang (57) , Doris E. Wendt (19) , Elliot Wickham (63) , Long Yang (64) , Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini (9, 8) , Günter Blöschl (65) , Giuliano Di Baldassarre (66, 40, 41)
1 GFZ - German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam
2 VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
3 Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig]
4 University of Houston
5 MSU - Lomonosov Moscow State University
6 UC - University of California
7 ITÜ - Istanbul Technical University
8 UFRO - Universidad de la frontera [Tecumo, Chile] = University of La Frontera [Tecumo, Chile] = Université de La Frontera [Tecumo, Chili]
9 (CR)2 - Center for Climate and Resilience Research [Conception]
10 Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua
11 U of S - University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon]
12 LEGOS - Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales
13 Department of Groundwater Management, Deltares, Delft
14 University of Birmingham [Birmingham]
15 Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology
16 Imperial College London
17 Beykent University [Istanbul]
18 University of Freiburg [Freiburg]
19 University of Bristol [Bristol]
20 Cabot Institute
21 Hellenic Mediterranean University
22 LOTERR - Centre de Recherche en Géographie
23 IRPI - Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection [Perugia]
24 UMR ISPA - Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère
25 MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
26 IUAV - Università Iuav di Venezia = Iuav University of Venice
27 FORTH - Foundation for Research and Technology - Hellas
28 Pontificia Bolivariana University, Faculty of Civil Engineering [Bucaramanga]
29 CSULB - California State University [Long Beach]
30 AWI - Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
31 ERIS - Emil Racoviță Institute of Speleology
32 USU - University Stefan cel Mare of Suceava
33 Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
34 HCMC - University of Sciences [Ho Chi Minh City]
35 ENVIRONMENT AGENCY BRISTOL GBR
36 Technical University of Crete [Chania]
37 SENAMHI - Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú = Peruvian National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology
38 University of Barcelona
39 British Geological Survey [Wallingford]
40 Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science [Uppsala]
41 Uppsala University
42 Penn State - Pennsylvania State University
43 EESC-USP - Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos
44 Deltares [The Netherlands]
45 Trelleborg municipality
46 Skane University Hospital [Lund]
47 Institute of Environmental Science and Geography [Potsdam]
48 HUST - Hanoi University of Science and Technology
49 VNU-HCM - Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City / Đại học Quốc gia TP. Hồ Chí Minh
50 HCMUS - Ho Chi Minh City University of Science
51 Faculty of Chemical Engineering [Vietnam National University, HCM]
52 OE OBSERVATORI DE L'EBRE RAMON LLULL UNIVERSITY ROQUETES ESP
53 UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]
54 OVGU - Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg = Otto-von-Guericke University [Magdeburg]
55 CEGIS - Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services
56 IMGW - PIB - Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
57 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
58 THU - Tsinghua University [Beijing]
59 Royal Botanical Gardens Kew [London]
60 KWR Watercycle Research Institute
61 Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
62 University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam
63 University of Nebraska–Lincoln
64 NJU - Nanjing University
65 Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management
66 IHE Delft - Institute for Water Education
Anne van Loon
Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu
Svetlana Agafonova
Amir Aghakouchak
Hafzullah Aksoy
Laila Balkhi
Chris Bradley
Wouter Buytaert
Ioannis Daliakopoulos
Claire Delus
Mathilde Erfurt
Didier François
Frédéric Frappart
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1338014
  • IdHAL : ffrappart
Natalia Frolova
Natalie Kieboom
Maria Kireeva
Hong-Yi Li
María Carmen Llasat
David Macdonald
Andrew Mckenzie
Alfonso Mejia
Thanh Ngo-Duc
Saman Razavi
Sanjib Sharma
Johanna Sörensen
Kerstin Stahl
Michael Stoelzle
Fuqiang Tian
Carolina Tovar
Long Yang

Résumé

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.
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Dates et versions

hal-03778186 , version 1 (10-10-2022)

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Paternité

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Heidi Kreibich, Anne van Loon, Kai Schröter, Philip J. Ward, Maurizio Mazzoleni, et al.. The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management. Nature, 2022, 608, pp.80-86. ⟨10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5⟩. ⟨hal-03778186⟩
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