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Pré-publication, Document de travail Année : 2014

Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-industrial England

Résumé

In this paper, we bridge economic data and climatic time series to assess the vulnerability of a pre-industrial economy to changes in climatic conditions. We propose an economic model to extract a measure of total productivity from English data (real wages and land rents) in the pre-industrial period. This measure of total productivity is then related to temperatures and precipitations. We find that lower (respectively higher) precipitations (resp. temperatures) enhance productivity. Further, temperatures also have non-linear effects on productivity : large temperature variations lower productivity. We perform counterfactual exercises and quantify the effects of large increases in temperatures on productivity, GDP and welfare.
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Dates et versions

halshs-01098763, version 1 (29-12-2014)

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  • HAL Id : halshs-01098763 , version 1

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Stéphane Auray, Aurélien Eyquem, Frédéric Jouneau-Sion. Climatic Conditions and Productivity: An Impact Evaluation in Pre-industrial England. 2014. ⟨halshs-01098763⟩
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