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                <term xml:lang="en">demographic prospects</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">social science</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">economic demography</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">demographic projection</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">migration</term>
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                <term xml:lang="en">population analysis</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">population</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">demography</term>
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                <term xml:lang="fr">projection démographique</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">science sociale</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">démographie économique</term>
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              <p>The purpose of the demographic outlook is to estimate the state of a population considered over a given time horizon. It is first necessary to distinguish the demographic forecasts and the demographic projections which are differentiated by their temporality and by the unicity - multiplicity opposition. Then, the specificity of the demographic perspectives in relation to those used in other scientific disciplines must be emphasized. It will then be possible to present the methods used in the three cases of perspectives : those that study an open population, those that rely on a closed population, and the derived perspectives. Finally, examples will serve as illustrations to highlight the complexity of measuring the future.</p>
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              <p>Les perspectives démographiques ont pour objet d’estimer quel sera l’état d’une population considérée à un horizon temporel déterminé. Il convient d’abord de distinguer les prévisions démographiques et les projections démographiques qui se différencient par leur temporalité et par l’opposition unicité - multiplicité. Il faut ensuite souligner la spécificité des perspectives démographiques par rapport à celles utilisées dans d’autres disciplines scientifiques. Il sera alors possible de présenter les méthodes employées dans les trois cas de perspectives : celles qui étudient une population ouverte, celles qui se fondent sur une population fermée, et les perspectives dérivées. Enfin des exemples serviront d’illustration pour mettre en évidence la complexité de la mesure du futur.</p>
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