<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<TEI xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:hal="http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/" xmlns:gml="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/" xmlns:gmlce="http://www.opengis.net/gml/3.3/ce" version="1.1" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0 http://api.archives-ouvertes.fr/documents/aofr-sword.xsd">
  <teiHeader>
    <fileDesc>
      <titleStmt>
        <title>HAL TEI export of halshs-03954173</title>
      </titleStmt>
      <publicationStmt>
        <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
        <availability status="restricted">
          <licence target="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC0 1.0 - Universal</licence>
        </availability>
        <date when="2026-05-18T02:10:17+02:00"/>
      </publicationStmt>
      <sourceDesc>
        <p part="N">HAL API Platform</p>
      </sourceDesc>
    </fileDesc>
  </teiHeader>
  <text>
    <body>
      <listBibl>
        <biblFull>
          <titleStmt>
            <title xml:lang="en">Rational Expectations: Observational Equivalence and Instability</title>
            <title xml:lang="fr">Anticipations rationnelles : Equivalence Observationnelle et Déstabilisation</title>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Jean-Bernard</forename>
                <surname>Chatelain</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">3a06489a0db805368ac2ce72516b05da</email>
              <email type="domain">univ-paris1.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="string">jean-bernard-chatelain</idno>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">8315</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">16442-8315</idno>
              <idno type="RESEARCHERID">http://www.researcherid.com/rid/B-8632-2012</idno>
              <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7768-9369</idno>
              <idno type="GOOGLE SCHOLAR">https://scholar.google.fr/citations?user=-pMqMdIAAAAJ&amp;hl=fr</idno>
              <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/137447256</idno>
              <idno type="RESEARCHERID">http://www.researcherid.com/rid/http://www.researcherid.com/rid/B-8632-2012</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-301309"/>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-578027"/>
            </author>
            <author role="aut">
              <persName>
                <forename type="first">Kirsten</forename>
                <surname>Ralf</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">ec8f904197f2b0ecd9aad96498ff6acf</email>
              <email type="domain">esce.fr</email>
              <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">914765</idno>
              <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">177659-914765</idno>
              <affiliation ref="#struct-240960"/>
            </author>
            <editor role="depositor">
              <persName>
                <forename>Caroline</forename>
                <surname>Bauer</surname>
              </persName>
              <email type="md5">3ea893b770da7b8f7c3a4173e35dd4de</email>
              <email type="domain">psemail.eu</email>
            </editor>
          </titleStmt>
          <editionStmt>
            <edition n="v1" type="current">
              <date type="whenSubmitted">2023-01-24 13:45:50</date>
              <date type="whenModified">2025-10-01 14:24:03</date>
              <date type="whenReleased">2023-01-24 13:45:50</date>
              <date type="whenProduced">2022-10</date>
              <fs>
                <f name="inra_etatDocument_local" notation="numeric">
                  <numeric>0</numeric>
                </f>
                <f name="inra_etatDocument_local" notation="string" n="0">
                  <string>inra_etatDocument_local_0</string>
                </f>
                <f name="inra_publicVise_local" notation="string" n="SC">
                  <string>inra_publicVise_local_SC</string>
                </f>
              </fs>
            </edition>
            <respStmt>
              <resp>contributor</resp>
              <name key="154354">
                <persName>
                  <forename>Caroline</forename>
                  <surname>Bauer</surname>
                </persName>
                <email type="md5">3ea893b770da7b8f7c3a4173e35dd4de</email>
                <email type="domain">psemail.eu</email>
              </name>
            </respStmt>
          </editionStmt>
          <publicationStmt>
            <distributor>CCSD</distributor>
            <idno type="halId">halshs-03954173</idno>
            <idno type="halUri">https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03954173</idno>
            <idno type="halBibtex">chatelain:halshs-03954173</idno>
            <idno type="halRefHtml">&lt;i&gt;Revue Française d'Economie&lt;/i&gt;, 2022, 37 (3), pp.79-94. &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://dx.doi.org/10.3917/rfe.231.0057"&gt;&amp;#x27E8;10.3917/rfe.231.0057&amp;#x27E9;&lt;/a&gt;</idno>
            <idno type="halRef">Revue Française d'Economie, 2022, 37 (3), pp.79-94. &amp;#x27E8;10.3917/rfe.231.0057&amp;#x27E9;</idno>
            <availability status="restricted"/>
          </publicationStmt>
          <seriesStmt>
            <idno type="stamp" n="SHS">Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="UNIV-PARIS1">Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="ENS-PARIS">Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="ENPC" corresp="PARISTECH">École nationale des ponts et chaussées </idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="PJSE" corresp="SHS">Paris-Jourdan Sciences économiques</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="PSE">Paris School of Economics</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="CNRS">CNRS - Centre national de la recherche scientifique</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="EHESS">Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="AO-ECONOMIE">Archives ouvertes de l'Economie</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="PARISTECH">ParisTech</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="PSL">Université Paris sciences et lettres</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="INRAE">Institut National de Recherche en Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="PSE-POST-PRINT">PSE Post-Print</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="ENS-PSL" corresp="PSL">École normale supérieure - PSL</idno>
            <idno type="stamp" n="RESEAU-EAU">Réseau "Systèmes Agricoles et Eau"</idno>
          </seriesStmt>
          <notesStmt>
            <note type="audience" n="2">International</note>
            <note type="popular" n="0">No</note>
            <note type="peer" n="1">Yes</note>
          </notesStmt>
          <sourceDesc>
            <biblStruct>
              <analytic>
                <title xml:lang="en">Rational Expectations: Observational Equivalence and Instability</title>
                <title xml:lang="fr">Anticipations rationnelles : Equivalence Observationnelle et Déstabilisation</title>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Jean-Bernard</forename>
                    <surname>Chatelain</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">3a06489a0db805368ac2ce72516b05da</email>
                  <email type="domain">univ-paris1.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="string">jean-bernard-chatelain</idno>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">8315</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">16442-8315</idno>
                  <idno type="RESEARCHERID">http://www.researcherid.com/rid/B-8632-2012</idno>
                  <idno type="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7768-9369</idno>
                  <idno type="GOOGLE SCHOLAR">https://scholar.google.fr/citations?user=-pMqMdIAAAAJ&amp;hl=fr</idno>
                  <idno type="IDREF">https://www.idref.fr/137447256</idno>
                  <idno type="RESEARCHERID">http://www.researcherid.com/rid/http://www.researcherid.com/rid/B-8632-2012</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-301309"/>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-578027"/>
                </author>
                <author role="aut">
                  <persName>
                    <forename type="first">Kirsten</forename>
                    <surname>Ralf</surname>
                  </persName>
                  <email type="md5">ec8f904197f2b0ecd9aad96498ff6acf</email>
                  <email type="domain">esce.fr</email>
                  <idno type="idhal" notation="numeric">914765</idno>
                  <idno type="halauthorid" notation="string">177659-914765</idno>
                  <affiliation ref="#struct-240960"/>
                </author>
              </analytic>
              <monogr>
                <idno type="halJournalId" status="VALID">20801</idno>
                <idno type="issn">0769-0479</idno>
                <idno type="eissn">1760-7388</idno>
                <title level="j">Revue Française d'Economie</title>
                <imprint>
                  <publisher>Association Française d'Économie</publisher>
                  <biblScope unit="volume">37</biblScope>
                  <biblScope unit="issue">3</biblScope>
                  <biblScope unit="pp">79-94</biblScope>
                  <date type="datePub">2022-10</date>
                </imprint>
              </monogr>
              <idno type="doi">10.3917/rfe.231.0057</idno>
            </biblStruct>
          </sourceDesc>
          <profileDesc>
            <langUsage>
              <language ident="fr">French</language>
            </langUsage>
            <textClass>
              <keywords scheme="author">
                <term xml:lang="en">Adaptive Expectations</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Rational Expectations</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Optimal behaviour</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Identification</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Interest rate rule</term>
                <term xml:lang="en">Stability</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">Stabilité</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">Règle de taux d’intérêt</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">Anticipations rationnelles</term>
                <term xml:lang="fr">Anticipations adaptatives</term>
              </keywords>
              <classCode scheme="jel" n="B.B2.B22">B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches/B.B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925/B.B2.B22 - Macroeconomics</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="jel" n="B.B2.B23">B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches/B.B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925/B.B2.B23 - Econometrics • Quantitative and Mathematical Studies</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="jel" n="B.B4.B41">B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches/B.B4 - Economic Methodology/B.B4.B41 - Economic Methodology</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="jel" n="C.C5.C52">C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C5 - Econometric Modeling/C.C5.C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="jel" n="E.E3.E31">E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E31 - Price Level • Inflation • Deflation</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="jel" n="O.O4.O41">O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O41 - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="jel" n="O.O4.O47">O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth • Aggregate Productivity • Cross-Country Output Convergence</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halDomain" n="shs.eco">Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halOldTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
              <classCode scheme="halTreeTypology" n="ART">Journal articles</classCode>
            </textClass>
            <abstract xml:lang="en">
              <p>This paper highlights two drawbacks with respect to the current use of rational expectations in new-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The first drawback is that a rational expectation model unobservable autoregressive shocks has the same predictions for given observations than an adaptive expectations model with white noise shocks. The second drawback is related to interest rate rules responding to inflation where both inflation and interest rate are non-predetermined variables. In this case, a unique rational expectations solution implies that the parameter in the interest rate rules destabilises inflation with a positive-feedback effects. However, these inflation or deflation spirals do not show off because the autocorrelation of inflation is the one of unobservable cost-push shocks. However this destabilizing stabilization paradox disappears if one assumes that the interest rate is a predetermined variable when inflation is a non-predetermined variable. Then, the rational expectations unique solution implies a policy rule parameter which stabilizes inflation.</p>
            </abstract>
            <abstract xml:lang="fr">
              <p>Cet article pointe deux inconvénients concernant l'usage actuel des anticipations rationnelles dans les modèles nouveaux-Keynésiens d'équilibre général dynamique et stochastique. Le premier inconvénient est que pour un modèle à anticipations rationnelles avec des chocs autorégressifs inobservables, on peut toujours trouver un modèle à anticipations adaptatives avec des chocs sans persistance qui a exactement les mêmes prédictions avec les mêmes observations disponibles. Le second inconvénient apparaît en présence d'un règle de taux d'intérêt répondant à l'inflation, où à la fois l'inflation et le taux d'intérêt seraient des variables non-prédéterminées. Dans ce cas, la solution impose que le paramètre de réponse du taux d'intérêt à l'inflation engendre des spirales déstabilisatrices inflationnistes ou déflationnistes par un effet de rétroaction positive. Cependant, ces spirales n'apparaîtraient pas du fait d'un ancrage de l'inflation sur un choc autorégressif inobservable. En revanche, ce paradoxe de « déstabilisation stabilisatrice » disparaît si on voulait bien faire l'hypothèse que le taux d'intérêt de la banque centrale est prédéterminé lorsque l'inflation n'est pas prédéterminée. Dans ce cas, la solution unique à anticipations rationnelles implique un paramètre de la règle qui stabilise l'inflation.</p>
            </abstract>
          </profileDesc>
        </biblFull>
      </listBibl>
    </body>
    <back>
      <listOrg type="structures">
        <org type="regrouplaboratory" xml:id="struct-301309" status="OLD">
          <idno type="IdRef">195137299</idno>
          <idno type="RNSR">200617701U</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/01qtp1053</idno>
          <orgName>Paris School of Economics</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">PSE</orgName>
          <date type="start">2006-01-01</date>
          <date type="end">2024-12-31</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/</ref>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation active="#struct-7550" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-59704" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-564132" type="indirect"/>
            <relation active="#struct-99539" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-301545" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-441569" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-577435" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-578027" status="OLD">
          <idno type="IdRef">165593520</idno>
          <idno type="RNSR">199812873F</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/03vtagt31</idno>
          <orgName>Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">PJSE</orgName>
          <date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
          <date type="end">2024-12-31</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.pse.ens.fr</ref>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation name="UMR8545" active="#struct-7550" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-59704" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-564132" type="indirect"/>
            <relation active="#struct-99539" type="direct"/>
            <relation active="#struct-301545" type="direct"/>
            <relation name="UMR8545" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"/>
            <relation name="UMR1393" active="#struct-577435" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-240960" status="INCOMING">
          <orgName>ESCE, International Business School</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation active="#struct-378280" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-7550" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">027361802</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">000000012173743X</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/002t25c44</idno>
          <orgName>Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">UP1</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>12 place du Panthéon, 75231 Paris Cedex 05</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.pantheonsorbonne.fr</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-59704" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">031738419</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000123532622</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/05a0dhs15</idno>
          <orgName>École normale supérieure - Paris</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">ENS-PSL</orgName>
          <date type="start">1985-07-24</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>45, Rue d'Ulm - 75230 Paris cedex 05</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.ens.psl.eu/</ref>
          </desc>
          <listRelation>
            <relation active="#struct-564132" type="direct"/>
          </listRelation>
        </org>
        <org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-564132" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">241597595</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000 0004 1784 3645</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/013cjyk83</idno>
          <orgName>Université Paris Sciences et Lettres</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">PSL</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>60 rue Mazarine 75006 Paris</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.psl.eu/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-99539" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">026374889</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/02d9dg697</idno>
          <orgName>École des hautes études en sciences sociales</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">EHESS</orgName>
          <date type="start">1975-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>54, boulevard Raspail 75006 Paris</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.ehess.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-301545" status="OLD">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/02nwvxz07</idno>
          <orgName>École nationale des ponts et chaussées</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">ENPC</orgName>
          <date type="start">1747-02-14</date>
          <date type="end">2024-12-31</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <addrLine>École nationale des ponts et chaussées, 6-8 avenue Blaise-Pascal, Cité Descartes, Champs-sur-Marne, 77455 Marne-la-Vallée cedex 2</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://ecoledesponts.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID">
          <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno>
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/02feahw73</idno>
          <orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName>
          <date type="start">1939-10-19</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">https://www.cnrs.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-577435" status="VALID">
          <idno type="ROR">https://ror.org/003vg9w96</idno>
          <orgName>Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">INRAE</orgName>
          <date type="start">2020-01-01</date>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
          </desc>
        </org>
        <org type="institution" xml:id="struct-378280" status="INCOMING">
          <orgName>ESCE</orgName>
          <desc>
            <address>
              <country key="FR"/>
            </address>
          </desc>
        </org>
      </listOrg>
    </back>
  </text>
</TEI>