Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability - HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article dans une revue Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Année : 2017

Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

Gilles Ramstein
Sylvie Charbit

Résumé

The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
article_auteurversion.pdf ( 1.21 Mo ) Télécharger
PNAS-2017-Defrance-1619358114.pdf ( 1.13 Mo ) Télécharger
article_auteurversion (1).pdf ( 1.21 Mo ) Télécharger
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...

Dates et versions

ird-01534034, version 1 (07-06-2017)

Identifiants

Citer

Dimitri Defrance, Gilles Ramstein, Sylvie Charbit, Mathieu Vrac, Adjoua Moïse Famien, et al.. Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017, 114 (25), pp.6533-6538. ⟨10.1073/pnas.1619358114⟩. ⟨ird-01534034⟩
469 Consultations
769 Téléchargements
Dernière date de mise à jour le 21/04/2024
comment ces indicateurs sont-ils produits

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Plus