Format du dépôt |
Fichier |
Type de dépôt |
Pré-publication, Document de travail |
Titre |
en
Energy, knowledge, and demo-economic development in the long run: a unified growth model
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Résumé |
en
This article provides a knowledge-based and energy-centred unified growth model of the transition from limited to sustained economic growth. We model the transition between: (i) a pre-modern organic regime defined by limited growth in per capita output, high fertility, low levels of human capital, technical change generated by learning-by-doing, and rare general purpose technology (GPT) arrivals; and (ii) a modern fossil regime characterized by sustained growth in per capita output, low fertility, high levels of human capital, technical change generated by profit-motivated R&D, and increasingly frequent GPT arrivals. The associated energy transition results from the endogenous shortage in the availability of renewable resources, and the arrival of new GPTs that, together, redirect technical change towards the exploitation of previously unprofitable exhaustible energy. A calibrated version of the model replicates the historical experience of Great Britain from 1700 to 1960. Counterfactual simulations are performed to characterize the impact of the energy transition on the timing and magnitude of the British economic take-off. Another simulation exercise compares the different trajectories of Western Europe and Eastern Asia to determine which parameters of our model are the most crucial to reflect the diverging dynamics of these two world regions.
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Auteur(s)
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Emmanuel Bovari
1, 2
, Victor Court
3, 2
1
CES -
Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
( 15080 )
- Maison des Sciences Économiques - 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital - 75647 Paris Cedex 13
- France
-
Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne UMR8174 ( 7550 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR8174 ( 441569 )
2
Chaire Energie & Prospérité
( 520844 )
- 28 place de la bourse Institut Louis Bachelier Paris, 75002 France
- France
-
École normale supérieure - Paris ( 59704 )
;
-
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres ( 564132 )
;
-
École polytechnique ( 300340 )
;
-
École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique ( 300604 )
;
-
Institut Louis Bachelier ( 520866 )
3
SPRU
( 141691 )
- Royaume-Uni
-
University of Sussex ( 364331 )
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Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Date de production/écriture |
2019-03-25
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Domaine(s) |
-
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
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Mots-clés (JEL) |
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C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
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J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth
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J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor/J.J2.J24 - Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity
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N - Economic History/N.N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics • Industrial Structure • Growth • Fluctuations/N.N1.N10 - General, International, or Comparative
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O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O3 - Innovation • Research and Development • Technological Change • Intellectual Property Rights/O.O3.O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
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O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O40 - General
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Financement |
-
Agence Nationale de la Recherche
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Projet(s) ANR |
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Mots-clés |
en
Unified growth theory, Directed technical change, Useful knowledge, Energy transition, Demographic transition
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