Intensive forestry is a notable manifestation of land use/cover changes (LUCC) characterized by its well-known environmental and socio-economic impacts at multiple scales. The Chilean industrial forestry is focused on the intensification of the pulp and cellulose production, in order to improve its place into the world pulp market. The DL 701 (1974 - and its repeated updating) covering up to 75% the costs of plantations, was the keystone of the forest expansion of pine and eucalyptus species. With the weakest national HDI, the municipality of San Juan de la Costa is particularly exposed to develop a spatially explicit model of land cover change. The goal is to develop future and contrasted scenarios in order to implement sustainable policies.