Locked into Copenhagen pledges -- Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
Keywan Riahi
(1)
,
Elmar Kriegler
(2)
,
Nils Johnson
(1)
,
Christoph Bertram
(2)
,
Michel G. J. den Elzen
(3)
,
Jiyong Eom
(4)
,
Michiel Schaeffer
(5)
,
Jae Edmonds
(4)
,
Morna Isaac
(6)
,
Volker Krey
(1)
,
Thomas Longden
(7)
,
Gunnar Luderer
(2)
,
Aurélie Méjean
(8)
,
David L Mccollum
(1)
,
Silvana Mima
(9)
,
Hal Turton
(10)
,
Detlef van Vuuren
(6)
,
Kenichi Wada
(11)
,
Valentina Bosetti
(7, 12)
,
Pantelis Capros
(13)
,
Patrick Criqui
(9)
,
Meriem Hamdi-Cherif
(8)
,
Mikiko Kainuma
(14)
,
Ottmar Edenhofer
(2)
1
IIASA -
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
2 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
3 RIVM - National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven]
4 Joint Global Change Research Institute
5 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
6 PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
7 FEEM - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
8 CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
9 équipe EDDEN
10 PSI - Paul Scherrer Institute
11 Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth
12 Bocconi University
13 NTUA - National Technical University of Athens [Athens]
14 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
2 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
3 RIVM - National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven]
4 Joint Global Change Research Institute
5 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
6 PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
7 FEEM - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
8 CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
9 équipe EDDEN
10 PSI - Paul Scherrer Institute
11 Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth
12 Bocconi University
13 NTUA - National Technical University of Athens [Athens]
14 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
Keywan Riahi
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 765060
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7193-3498
- IdRef : 106905279
Aurélie Méjean
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 16363
- IdHAL : aurelie-mejean
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2859-3613
- IdRef : 259967076
Silvana Mima
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 3529
- IdHAL : silvana-mima
- ORCID : 0000-0002-0336-987X
Detlef van Vuuren
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 770580
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0398-2831
- IdRef : 200058126
Valentina Bosetti
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1082331
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4970-0027
- IdRef : 140320660
Patrick Criqui
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 3564
- IdHAL : patrick-criqui
- IdRef : 026805553
Meriem Hamdi-Cherif
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 754422
- IdHAL : meriem-hamdi-cherif
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7511-354X
- IdRef : 197651585
Résumé
This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Locked into Copenhagen pledges -- Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
|
Résumé |
en
This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.
|
Auteur(s) |
Keywan Riahi
1
, Elmar Kriegler
2
, Nils Johnson
1
, Christoph Bertram
2
, Michel G. J. den Elzen
3
, Jiyong Eom
4
, Michiel Schaeffer
5
, Jae Edmonds
4
, Morna Isaac
6
, Volker Krey
1
, Thomas Longden
7
, Gunnar Luderer
2
, Aurélie Méjean
8
, David L Mccollum
1
, Silvana Mima
9
, Hal Turton
10
, Detlef van Vuuren
6
, Kenichi Wada
11
, Valentina Bosetti
7, 12
, Pantelis Capros
13
, Patrick Criqui
9
, Meriem Hamdi-Cherif
8
, Mikiko Kainuma
14
, Ottmar Edenhofer
2
1
IIASA -
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
( 487706 )
- Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
- Autriche
2
PIK -
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
( 232065 )
- Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam
- Allemagne
3
RIVM -
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven]
( 453112 )
- Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, 3721 MA, Bilthoven / PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven
- Pays-Bas
4
Joint Global Change Research Institute
( 247509 )
- États-Unis
5
WUR -
Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
( 356395 )
- Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen
- Pays-Bas
6
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
( 243351 )
- Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, 2594 AV The Hague
- Pays-Bas
7
FEEM -
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
( 216365 )
- Italie
8
CIRED -
centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
( 135977 )
- 45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle - 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex
- France
9
équipe EDDEN
( 388416 )
- équipe 2013-2015
- France
10
PSI -
Paul Scherrer Institute
( 1961 )
- Villigen PSI, CH5232 Villigen, Suisse
- Suisse
11
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth
( 247511 )
- Japon
12
Bocconi University
( 183878 )
- Italie
13
NTUA -
National Technical University of Athens [Athens]
( 58785 )
- Patission Complex, 42, Patission str, 10682 Athens
Zografou Campus - 9, Iroon Polytechniou str - 15780 Zografou, Athens
- Grèce
14
NIES -
National Institute for Environmental Studies
( 98417 )
- Tsukuba, Ibaraki
- Japon
|
URL éditeur |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162513002539
|
Volume |
90
|
Page/Identifiant |
8-23
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2015-01
|
Date de publication électronique |
2013-11
|
Collaboration/Projet |
|
Référence interne |
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Projet(s) Européen(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Copenhagen pledges, climate policy, mitigation, AMPERE, greenhouse gas emissions
|
DOI | 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016 |
Loading...