Forecasting the extreme-right vote at the 2012 presidential election: Evaluating our model
Résumé
This article evaluates our structural model forecasting the Extreme-Right vote in France since the mid-1970s and reflects upon its performance in 2012. We discuss the implications of the stability of the national-level specification of the model, as well as the limitations imposed by the availability and definition of some of the macro indicators used as predictors. Although empirically accurate in 2012, there are a number of unknowns in the model's likely fortunes for future elections, in particular, whether the ‘Marine effect’ observable in 2012 will translate into core party support, and the extent to which a party ‘normalisation’ strategy will affect its 2017 performance.
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Est décrite par halshs-01387643 Objet présenté à une conférence Jocelyn A.J. Evans, Gilles Ivaldi. Forecasting the FN presidential and legislative performance in 2012. APSA Annual Meeting, American Political Science Association, Aug 2012, New Orleans, United States. ⟨halshs-01387643⟩
