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Article Dans Une Revue Political Research Quarterly Année : 2012

Deriving a Forecast Model for European Election Turnout

Gilles Ivaldi
Jocelyn A.J. Evans
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Résumé

Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic, and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout, and simultaneously minimizing prediction error. Building on a series of regression models using aggregate data, this article explores the applicability of such an approach to turnout in the EU-27 countries and considers the explanatory added value that deriving such a forecast model can also provide.
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Dates et versions

halshs-01385845 , version 1 (22-10-2016)

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Gilles Ivaldi, Jocelyn A.J. Evans. Deriving a Forecast Model for European Election Turnout. Political Research Quarterly, 2012, 65 (4), pp.855-867. ⟨10.1177/1065912911421016⟩. ⟨halshs-01385845⟩
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