Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity
Aurélie Méjean
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- IdHAL : aurelie-mejean
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2859-3613
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Antonin Pottier
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- ORCID : 0000-0003-2890-9585
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Marc Fleurbaey
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Stéphane Zuber
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-4111-2397
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Résumé
Climate change threatens irreversible and dangerous impacts, possibly leading to extinction. The most relevant trade-off then may not be between present and future consumption but between present consumption and the mere existence of future generations. To investigate this trade-off, we build an integrated assessment model that explicitly accounts for the risk of extinction of future generations. Using the class of number-dampened utilitarian social welfare functions, we compare different climate policies that change the probability of catastrophic outcomes yielding an early extinction. We analyse the role of inequality aversion and population ethics. Low inequality aversion and a preference for large populations favour the most ambitious climate policy, although there are cases where the effect of inequality aversion on the preferred policy is reversed. This is due to the fact that a higher inequality aversion both decreases the welfare loss of reducing consumption of the current generation and also decreases the welfare gain of reducing the future risk of extinction.
Format du dépôt | Fichier |
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Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Résumé |
en
Climate change threatens irreversible and dangerous impacts, possibly leading to extinction. The most relevant trade-off then may not be between present and future consumption but between present consumption and the mere existence of future generations. To investigate this trade-off, we build an integrated assessment model that explicitly accounts for the risk of extinction of future generations. Using the class of number-dampened utilitarian social welfare functions, we compare different climate policies that change the probability of catastrophic outcomes yielding an early extinction. We analyse the role of inequality aversion and population ethics. Low inequality aversion and a preference for large populations favour the most ambitious climate policy, although there are cases where the effect of inequality aversion on the preferred policy is reversed. This is due to the fact that a higher inequality aversion both decreases the welfare loss of reducing consumption of the current generation and also decreases the welfare gain of reducing the future risk of extinction.
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Titre |
en
Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity
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Auteur(s) |
Aurélie Méjean
1
, Antonin Pottier
1, 2
, Marc Fleurbaey
3, 4, 5
, Stéphane Zuber
5, 6, 4
1
CIRED -
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
( 1042364 )
- 45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle - 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex
- France
2
EHESS -
École des hautes études en sciences sociales
( 99539 )
- 54, boulevard Raspail 75006 Paris
- France
3
Princeton University
( 46584 )
- Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
- États-Unis
4
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
5
CNRS -
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
( 441569 )
- France
6
CES -
Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
( 15080 )
- Maison des Sciences Économiques - 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital - 75647 Paris Cedex 13
- France
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Date de publication |
2020-11-12
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Volume |
163
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Page/Identifiant |
873–890
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URL éditeur |
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02899-9
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Langue du document |
Anglais
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Nom de la revue |
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Vulgarisation |
Non
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Comité de lecture |
Oui
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Audience |
Internationale
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Commentaire |
URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/documents-de-travail-du-ces/
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Domaine(s) |
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Mots-clés (JEL) |
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Projet(s) ANR |
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Mots-clés |
en
Climate change, catastrophic risk, Equity, Population, Climate-economy model
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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-020-02899-9 |
Origine :
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
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