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Pré-publication, Document de travail Année : 2019

The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending

Résumé

In response to increasing debt paths, governments often implement fiscal consolidation programs. This paper studies the impact of these programs on the composition of government spending. System-GMM estimations performed on a sample of 53 developed and emerging countries over 1980-2011 reveal that fiscal consolidations significantly reduce the government investment-to-consumption ratio, i.e. a composition effect. Robust to a wide set of tests, this significantly stronger contraction of government investment with respect to government consumption is at work particularly when debt is high, for spending-based fiscal consolidations, in the low phase of the economic cycle, and following debt and stock market crises. Therefore, in such contexts, fiscal consolidations aimed at short-run stabilization may hurt the economy in the long-run through their detrimental effect on public investment, calling for a reflection upon how they could be re-designed to allow avoiding such undesirable consequences.
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Dates et versions

halshs-02043892, version 1 (21-02-2019)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : halshs-02043892 , version 1

Citer

Moulaye Bamba, Jean-Louis Combes, Alexandru Minea. The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending. 2019. ⟨halshs-02043892⟩

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