Space Matters: Extending Sensitivity Analysis to Initial Spatial Conditions in Geosimulation Models
Juste Raimbault
(1, 2, 3)
,
Clémentine Cottineau
(4)
,
Marion Le Texier
(5)
,
Florent Le Néchet
(6)
,
Romain Reuillon
(7)
1
Center for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL
2 ISC-PIF - Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France
3 GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités
4 UP1 UFR08 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR Géographie
5 Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg
6 LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport
7 ISC-PIF - Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France
2 ISC-PIF - Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France
3 GC (UMR_8504) - Géographie-cités
4 UP1 UFR08 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR Géographie
5 Uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg
6 LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport
7 ISC-PIF - Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France
Juste Raimbault
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 8803
- IdHAL : juste-raimbault
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0768-9480
- IdRef : 253120284
Clémentine Cottineau
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 176709
- IdHAL : clementine-cottineau
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2452-3901
- IdRef : 23600459X
Marion Le Texier
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 16330
- IdHAL : marion-le-texier
- ORCID : 0000-0003-3762-1874
- IdRef : 176714375
Florent Le Néchet
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 2333
- IdHAL : florent-le-nechet
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5750-1509
- IdRef : 151926263
Romain Reuillon
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 916326
- IdHAL : romain-reuillon
Résumé
Although simulation models of socio-spatial systems in general and agent-based models in particular represent a fantastic opportunity to explore socio-spatial behaviours and to test a variety of scenarios for public policy, the validity of generative models is uncertain unless their results are proven robust and representative of 'real-world' conditions. Sensitivity analysis usually includes the analysis of the effect of stochasticity on the variability of results, as well as the effects of small parameter changes. However, initial spatial conditions are usually not modified systematically in socio-spatial models, thus leaving unexplored the effect of initial spatial arrangements on the interactions of agents with one another as well as with their environment. In this article, we present a method to assess the effect of variation of some initial spatial conditions on simulation models, using a systematic geometric structures generator in order to create density grids with which socio-spatial simulation models are initialised. We show, with the example of two classical agent-based models (Schelling's model of segregation and Sugarscape's model of unequal societies) and a straightforward open-source workflow using high performance computing, that the effect of initial spatial arrangements is significant on the two models. We wish to illustrate the potential interest of adding spatial sensitivity analysis during the exploration of models for both modellers and thematic specialists.
Domaines
Géographie Système multi-agents [cs.MA] Mathématique discrète [cs.DM] Machine Learning [stat.ML] Automates cellulaires et gaz sur réseau [nlin.CG] Dynamique Chaotique [nlin.CD] Adaptation et Systèmes auto-organisés [nlin.AO] Finance quantitative [q-fin.CP] Biodiversité et EcologieFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Space Matters: Extending Sensitivity Analysis to Initial Spatial Conditions in Geosimulation Models
|
Résumé |
en
Although simulation models of socio-spatial systems in general and agent-based models in particular represent a fantastic opportunity to explore socio-spatial behaviours and to test a variety of scenarios for public policy, the validity of generative models is uncertain unless their results are proven robust and representative of 'real-world' conditions. Sensitivity analysis usually includes the analysis of the effect of stochasticity on the variability of results, as well as the effects of small parameter changes. However, initial spatial conditions are usually not modified systematically in socio-spatial models, thus leaving unexplored the effect of initial spatial arrangements on the interactions of agents with one another as well as with their environment. In this article, we present a method to assess the effect of variation of some initial spatial conditions on simulation models, using a systematic geometric structures generator in order to create density grids with which socio-spatial simulation models are initialised. We show, with the example of two classical agent-based models (Schelling's model of segregation and Sugarscape's model of unequal societies) and a straightforward open-source workflow using high performance computing, that the effect of initial spatial arrangements is significant on the two models. We wish to illustrate the potential interest of adding spatial sensitivity analysis during the exploration of models for both modellers and thematic specialists.
|
Auteur(s) |
Juste Raimbault
1, 2, 3
, Clémentine Cottineau
4
, Marion Le Texier
5
, Florent Le Néchet
6
, Romain Reuillon
7
1
Center for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL
( 553466 )
- Royaume-Uni
2
ISC-PIF -
Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France
( 541899 )
- 57-59 rue Lhomond 75005 Paris
- France
3
GC (UMR_8504) -
Géographie-cités
( 43649 )
- 13 rue du Four - 75006 Paris
- France
4
UP1 UFR08 -
Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UFR Géographie
( 219287 )
- Institut de Géographie - 191, rue Saint-Jacques - 75231 Paris cedex 05
- France
5
Uni.lu -
Université du Luxembourg
( 104741 )
- 6 rue Richard Coudenhove-Kalergi - L-1359 Luxembourg
- Luxembourg
6
LVMT -
Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport
( 222115 )
- 6 et 8 avenue Blaise Pascal - Cité Descartes, Champs sur Marne - F-77447 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2
- France
7
ISC-PIF -
Institut des Systèmes Complexes - Paris Ile-de-France
( 46714 )
- 57-59 rue Lhomond 75005 Paris
- France
|
Numéro |
4
|
URL éditeur |
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/22/4/10.html
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2019
|
Volume |
22
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
fr
ACL, PARIS team
|
arXiv Id | 1812.06008 |
DOI | 10.18564/jasss.4136 |
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