Demographics in MENA Countries: A Major Driver for Economic Growth
Yeganeh Forouheshfar
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 938145
Hippolyte d'Albis
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 16845
- IdHAL : hippolyte-dalbis
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6409-4320
- IdRef : 07955279X
Résumé
MENA region is undergoing rapid demographic transition, where 50% of the population is under the age 25 and high youth unemployment rates are argued to be one of the main sources of political instability. In this paper we evaluate the economic impact of the demographic transition for selected MENA countries, namely: Iran, Morocco and Egypt who experience different speeds of transition. We have developed a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with a cost of capital mobilisation as a proxy for financial markets’ efficiency and simulated the demographic trends in each country. We find that the demographic shift will be an important driver for growth in the upcoming decades. Furthermore, our results show that a more efficient financial sector leads to better economic performance. Specifically, youth are the primary beneficiaries: an increase in the financial sector efficiency can reduce up to 8 percentage points of the the unemployment rate for the youngest age group.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Demographics in MENA Countries: A Major Driver for Economic Growth
|
Résumé |
en
MENA region is undergoing rapid demographic transition, where 50% of the population is under the age 25 and high youth unemployment rates are argued to be one of the main sources of political instability. In this paper we evaluate the economic impact of the demographic transition for selected MENA countries, namely: Iran, Morocco and Egypt who experience different speeds of transition. We have developed a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with a cost of capital mobilisation as a proxy for financial markets’ efficiency and simulated the demographic trends in each country. We find that the demographic shift will be an important driver for growth in the upcoming decades. Furthermore, our results show that a more efficient financial sector leads to better economic performance. Specifically, youth are the primary beneficiaries: an increase in the financial sector efficiency can reduce up to 8 percentage points of the the unemployment rate for the youngest age group.
|
Auteur(s) |
Yeganeh Forouheshfar
1, 2, 3
, Najat El Mekkaoui
1, 2, 3
, Hippolyte d'Albis
4, 5
1
Université Paris Dauphine-PSL
( 300302 )
- Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny
75775 PARIS Cedex 16
- France
2
LEDA-DIAL -
Développement, Institutions et Modialisation
( 153208 )
- Université Paris-Dauphine Place du Mal de Lattre de Tassigny 75775 Paris Cedex 16
- France
3
PSL -
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
( 564132 )
- 60 rue Mazarine 75006 Paris
- France
4
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
5
PJSE -
Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
( 578027 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Numéro spécial |
Numéro spécial
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2020-06
|
Volume |
168
|
Numéro |
2
|
Page/Identifiant |
183-213
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Development, MENA region, Financial efficiency, OLG model, Demographic transition
|
DOI | 10.1007/s10645-020-09357-y |
UT key WOS | 000529536700003 |
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