The surprising instability of export specializations
Ariell Reshef
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 11777
- IdHAL : ariell-reshef
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2722-2717
- IdRef : 227208277
Résumé
We study the instability of hyper-specialization of exports at the 4-digit level in 1998–2010. (1) Specializations are surprisingly un-stable. Export ranks are not persistent, and new top products and destinations replace old ones. Measurement error is unlikely to be the main or only determinant of this pattern. (2) Source country factors are not the main explanation of this instability. Only 16–20% of variation in export growth is accounted for by source country plus source country-product factors that do not vary across destinations. The high share of idiosyncratic variance (source-product-destination residual) of 41–55%, indicates the difficulty to predict export success using source country characteristics. While we are cautious in interpreting factors that are jointly determined in global general equilibrium, our results suggest that destination and product-specific factors importantly matter at least as much as source country factors.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
The surprising instability of export specializations
|
Résumé |
en
We study the instability of hyper-specialization of exports at the 4-digit level in 1998–2010. (1) Specializations are surprisingly un-stable. Export ranks are not persistent, and new top products and destinations replace old ones. Measurement error is unlikely to be the main or only determinant of this pattern. (2) Source country factors are not the main explanation of this instability. Only 16–20% of variation in export growth is accounted for by source country plus source country-product factors that do not vary across destinations. The high share of idiosyncratic variance (source-product-destination residual) of 41–55%, indicates the difficulty to predict export success using source country characteristics. While we are cautious in interpreting factors that are jointly determined in global general equilibrium, our results suggest that destination and product-specific factors importantly matter at least as much as source country factors.
|
Auteur(s) |
Diego Daruich
1
, William Easterly
1, 2
, Ariell Reshef
3, 4, 5
1
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
( 325235 )
-
- France
2
NYU -
New York University [New York]
( 300459 )
- 70 Washington Square South, New York, NY 10012
- États-Unis
3
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
4
CEPII -
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales
( 39083 )
- 9 rue Georges Pitard - 75740 Paris Cedex 15
- France
5
PJSE -
Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
( 1171428 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
|
Volume |
137
|
Page/Identifiant |
36-65
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2019-03
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
|
Financement |
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Power law, Granularity, Export growth, Industrial policy
|
DOI | 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.10.009 |
UT key WOS | 000457657800002 |
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