Tracking the Dynamics and Allocating Tests for COVID-19 in Real-Time: an Acceleration Index with an Application to French Age Groups and Départements - HAL-SHS - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2020

Tracking the Dynamics and Allocating Tests for COVID-19 in Real-Time: an Acceleration Index with an Application to French Age Groups and Départements

Mickael Degoulet
Stéphane Luchini
Patrick A. Pintus
Miriam Teschl
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1081080

Résumé

An acceleration index is proposed as a novel indicator to track the dynamics of the COVID-19 in real-time. Using French data on cases and tests for the period following the first lock-down-from May 13, 2020, onwards-our acceleration index shows that the ongoing pandemic resurgence can be dated to begin around July 7. It uncovers that the pandemic acceleration has been stronger than national average for the [59 − 68] and especially the 69 and older age groups since early September, the latter being associated with the strongest acceleration index, as of October 25. In contrast, acceleration among the [19 − 28] age group is the lowest and is about half that of the [69 − 78], as of October 25. In addition, we propose an algorithm to allocate tests among French départements, based on both the acceleration index and the feedback effect of testing. Our acceleration-based allocation differs from the actual distribution over French territories, which is population-based. We argue that both our acceleration index and our allocation algorithm are useful tools to guide public health policies as France enters a second lock-down period with indeterminate duration.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
WP 2020 - Nr 35.pdf (2.19 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...

Dates et versions

halshs-02995369 , version 1 (09-11-2020)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : halshs-02995369 , version 1

Citer

Christelle Baunez, Mickael Degoulet, Stéphane Luchini, Patrick A. Pintus, Miriam Teschl. Tracking the Dynamics and Allocating Tests for COVID-19 in Real-Time: an Acceleration Index with an Application to French Age Groups and Départements. 2020. ⟨halshs-02995369⟩
151 Consultations
104 Téléchargements

Partager

More