Format du dépôt |
Fichier |
Type de dépôt |
Pré-publication, Document de travail |
Titre |
en
How do inequalities affect the natural interest rate, and how do they impact monetary policy? Comparing Germany, Japan and the US
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Résumé |
en
In this paper we analyze how growing income/wealth inequality and the functional income distribution inequality have contributed to the sustained low potential growth observed in the industrialized economies during the last two decades, a period that includes the Great Recession (GR). Growing inequality may constitute a drawback for the recovery of these economies, especially after the Great Pandemic (GP). To this aim, we modify the semi-structural model originally proposed by Holston, Laubach and William, by considering the effects of several types of inequalities. We jointly estimate potential growth and the natural interest rates. We show that the latter can substantially modify the time path of the real interest rate that prevails when economies are at full strength and inflation is stable.
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Auteur(s)
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Mariam Camarero
1, 2
, Gilles Dufrénot
3
, Cecilio Tamarit
4
1
University Jaume I
( 346482 )
- Espagne
2
INTECO -
Grupo de Investigacion en Integracion Economica
( 1067025 )
- Espagne
3
AMSE -
Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques
( 526949 )
- 5-9 Boulevard Bourdet
CS 50498
13205 Marseille Cedex 1
- France
-
École des hautes études en sciences sociales UMR7316 ( 99539 )
;
-
Aix Marseille Université UMR7316 ( 198056 )
;
-
École Centrale de Marseille UMR7316 ( 300415 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR7316 ( 441569 )
4
Department of Applied Economics II, University of Valencia, Avda. dels Tarongers s/n, Valencia 46022
( 207660 )
- France
-
affiliation inconnue ( 469724 )
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Langue du document |
Anglais
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Date de production/écriture |
2021-04
|
Domaine(s) |
-
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
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Mots-clés (JEL) |
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook/E.E6.E62 - Fiscal Policy
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit/E.E5.E52 - Monetary Policy
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy/E.E2.E21 - Consumption • Saving • Wealth
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C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models • Multiple Variables/C.C3.C32 - Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes • State Space Models
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Référence interne |
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Working paper AMSE 2021-23
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Projet(s) ANR |
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Projet(s) Européen(s) |
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- project 611032-EPP-1- 2019-1-ES-EPPJMO-CoE
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Financement |
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Cecilio Tamarit and Mariam Camarero acknowledge the public funding from the ERDF and AEI-Spanish
Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (ECO2017-83255-C3-3-P project), the Valencian regional government
(Generalitat Valenciana-PROMETEO 2018/102 project) and the European Commission (project 611032-EPP-1-
2019-1-ES-EPPJMO-CoE).
-
Gilles Dufrénot acknowledges financial support by French National Research Agency Grants ANR-17-EURE-0020.
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Mots-clés |
en
potential growth, inequality, natural interest rate, G7, state-space model
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