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Impacts des chocs politiques et sanitaires sur la croissance économique. Le cas de la Tunisie

Abstract : Such extreme events as a revolution, a global pandemic, or terrorist attacks are political shocks that can significantly impact confidence and economic growth. Tunisia, for which tourism is crucial, has recently undergone a revolution in 2011, two terrorist attacks in 2015, and now the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic impact of these political events is much greater than that of the economic crisis of 2008. Using a post-Keynesian stock-flow consistent model, the aim of this paper is to reproduce the stylized facts since 2008. We first build a confidence index, then we try to provide forecasts of the economic impact of exogenous shocks
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https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03412949
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Submitted on : Wednesday, November 3, 2021 - 2:22:31 PM
Last modification on : Saturday, June 25, 2022 - 10:44:23 AM

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Edwin Le Héron, Amine Marouane. Impacts des chocs politiques et sanitaires sur la croissance économique. Le cas de la Tunisie. Économie appliquée, 2021, 1, pp.159-187. ⟨10.48611/isbn.978-2-406-11904-3.p.0159⟩. ⟨halshs-03412949⟩

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