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Article dans une revue Nature Climate Change Année : 2022

Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility

Résumé

Migration is a widely used adaptation strategy to climate change impacts. Yet resource constraints caused by such impacts may limit the ability to migrate, thereby leading to immobility. Here we provide a quantitative, global analysis of reduced international mobility due to resource deprivation caused by climate change. We incorporate both migration dynamics and within-region income distributions in an integrated assessment model. We show that climate change induces decreases in emigration of lowest-income levels by over 10% in 2100 for medium development and climate scenarios compared with no climate change and by up to 35% for more pessimistic scenarios including catastrophic damages. This effect would leave resource-constrained populations extremely vulnerable to both subsequent climate change impacts and increased poverty.
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Dates et versions

halshs-03907684, version 1 (20-12-2022)

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Hélène Benveniste, Michael Oppenheimer, Marc Fleurbaey. Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility. Nature Climate Change, 2022, 12 (7), pp.634-641. ⟨10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w⟩. ⟨halshs-03907684⟩
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