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Rapport (Rapport De Recherche) Année : 2023

Final scenarios for multimodal traffic management

Résumé

This deliverable (D2.4) develops exploratory scenarios of the future of the MTM in a long-term perspective in Europe up to 2050. These scenarios are broadly designed to stimulate dialogue and debate on the future of MTM by depicting a few contrasting pictures of a data driven MTM. Scenario 1, called "MTM becomes seamless and optimised" is based on a vision of the future guided by the search for maximum optimisation in traffic management. This optimisation is made possible by the real-time sharing of data between stakeholders in passenger and freight traffic in all modes. This exchange can only work if the stakeholders have full confidence in the confidentiality of the data, its reliability and its secure storage. To this end, a major player has been introduced into the MTME designed up to now: the Data Intermediator (DI). It is the guarantor of the respect of these conditions, without which a complete deployment of the MTM cannot be envisaged in the future. Scenario 2 is a variant of scenario 1 in which "The Tech Giants became the main traffic data providers". It corresponds to an extension of the basic trend since the early 2000s of the global supremacy of the Tech Giants in the collection and marketing of digital data. In this scenario, the development of what some sociologists and economists call "surveillance capitalism” significantly modifies the conditions in which the MTM is deployed: the fact that traffic data are stored and held by companies mainly outside Europe reinforces the need for the DI. Scenario 3 is a breakthrough scenario compared to the previous two. Its title "Welcome to a sustainable MTME" describes a society concerned with the well-being of future generations. In this society, saving the planetary limits of both energy resources and raw materials necessary for the exchange of data and the transport of goods and people is an absolute priority. In this scenario, the democratic values of interpersonal relations are the most important in everyday life. The data needed for traffic management is considered as commons, and mobility is no longer seen as an indispensable factor for growth. The impacts of digital technology, like those of transport, are information that is constantly being delivered and MTM is only deployed where it is useful and where it has a proven positive impact. As a result, individuals and companies have a mobility quota that is considered in traffic management. Democratic values have made it possible to set up a particular governance of the ID: the participation of stakeholders in this governance, including people from civil society, reinforces the confidence given to it as regards the security and reliability of the data and the use made of it.
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Dates et versions

halshs-04090106, version 1 (05-05-2023)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : halshs-04090106 , version 1

Citer

Ludovic Vaillant, Bruno Dewailly, Marie Douet, Marit Natvig, Trine Marie Stene, et al.. Final scenarios for multimodal traffic management: final version of Deliverable 2.4 for ORCHESTRA Project. European commission - DG Research and Innovation. 2023, pp.81. ⟨halshs-04090106⟩
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Dernière date de mise à jour le 07/04/2024
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