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Autre publication scientifique Documents de travail du Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne Année : 2024

The impossibility of non-manipulable probability aggregation

Résumé

A probability aggregation rule assigns to each profile of probability functions across a group of individuals (representing their individual probability assignments to some propositions) a collective probability function (representing the group's probability assignment). The rule is "non-manipulable" if no group member can manipulate the collective probability for any proposition in the direction of his or her own probability by misrepresenting his or her probability function ("strategic voting"). We show that, except in trivial cases, no probability aggregation rule satisfying two mild conditions (non-dictatorship and consensus preservation) is non-manipulable.
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Dates et versions

halshs-04405495, version 1 (11-04-2024)

Licence

Paternité - CC BY 4.0

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  • HAL Id : halshs-04405495 , version 1

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Franz Dietrich, Christian List. The impossibility of non-manipulable probability aggregation. 2024. ⟨halshs-04405495⟩
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Dernière date de mise à jour le 28/04/2024
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