BEWARE OF BLACK SWANS AND DO NOT IGNORE WHITE ONES?
André de Palma
(1, 2)
,
Mohammed Abdellaoui
(3)
,
Giuseppe Attanasi
(4)
,
Moshe Ben-Akiva
(5)
,
Helga Fehr-Duda
(6)
,
Ido Erev
(7)
,
Dennis Fok
(8)
,
Ralph Hertwig
(9)
,
Nathalie Picard
(2, 10)
,
Martin Weber
(11)
,
Craig Fox
(12)
,
P.P. Wakker
(8)
,
A.L. Walker
(13)
1
ENS Cachan -
École normale supérieure - Cachan
2 X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique
3 GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC
4 BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée
5 MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
6 ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]
7 Technion - Israel Institute of Technology [Haifa]
8 Erasmus University Rotterdam
9 Max-Planck-Institut
10 THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications
11 Universität Mannheim
12 UCLA-CS - Computer Science Department [UCLA]
13 Department of Mathematics [Berkeley]
2 X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique
3 GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC
4 BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée
5 MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
6 ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]
7 Technion - Israel Institute of Technology [Haifa]
8 Erasmus University Rotterdam
9 Max-Planck-Institut
10 THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications
11 Universität Mannheim
12 UCLA-CS - Computer Science Department [UCLA]
13 Department of Mathematics [Berkeley]
André de Palma
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 923059
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4364-3068
- IdRef : 031497578
Giuseppe Attanasi
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 170602
- IdHAL : giuseppe-attanasi
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0848-5770
- IdRef : 186270321
Résumé
Uncertainty pervades most aspects of life. From selecting a new technology to choosing a career, decision makers often ignore the outcomes of their decisions. In the last decade a new paradigm has emerged in behavioral decision research in which decisions are “experienced” rather than “described”, as in standard decision theory. The dominant finding from studies using the experience-based paradigm is that decisions from experience exhibit "black swan effect", i.e. the tendency to neglect rare events. Under prospect theory, this results in an experience-description gap. We show that several tentative conclusions can be drawn from our interdisciplinary examination of the putative experience-description gap in decision under uncertainty. Several insights are discussed. First, while the major source of under-weighting of rare events may be sampling error, it is argued that a robust experience-description gap remains when these factors are not at play. Second, the residual experience-description gap is not only about experience per se, but also about the way in which information concerning the probability distribution over possible outcomes is learned.Additional econometric and empirical work might be required to fully flech out these tentative conclusions. However, there was a consensus that an initially polemical literature turns out to be constructive in drawing researcher towards greater rapprochements.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Pré-publication, Document de travail |
Résumé |
en
Uncertainty pervades most aspects of life. From selecting a new technology to choosing a career, decision makers often ignore the outcomes of their decisions. In the last decade a new paradigm has emerged in behavioral decision research in which decisions are “experienced” rather than “described”, as in standard decision theory. The dominant finding from studies using the experience-based paradigm is that decisions from experience exhibit "black swan effect", i.e. the tendency to neglect rare events. Under prospect theory, this results in an experience-description gap. We show that several tentative conclusions can be drawn from our interdisciplinary examination of the putative experience-description gap in decision under uncertainty. Several insights are discussed. First, while the major source of under-weighting of rare events may be sampling error, it is argued that a robust experience-description gap remains when these factors are not at play. Second, the residual experience-description gap is not only about experience per se, but also about the way in which information concerning the probability distribution over possible outcomes is learned.Additional econometric and empirical work might be required to fully flech out these tentative conclusions. However, there was a consensus that an initially polemical literature turns out to be constructive in drawing researcher towards greater rapprochements.
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Titre |
tr
BEWARE OF BLACK SWANS AND DO NOT IGNORE WHITE ONES?
|
Auteur(s) |
André de Palma
1, 2
, Mohammed Abdellaoui
3
, Giuseppe Attanasi
4
, Moshe Ben-Akiva
5
, Helga Fehr-Duda
6
, Ido Erev
7
, Dennis Fok
8
, Ralph Hertwig
9
, Nathalie Picard
2, 10
, Martin Weber
11
, Craig Fox
12
, P.P. Wakker
8
, A.L. Walker
13
1
ENS Cachan -
École normale supérieure - Cachan
( 6862 )
- 61, avenue du Président Wilson - 94230 Cachan
- France
2
X-DEP-ECO -
Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique
( 444480 )
- École Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau Cedex
- France
3
GREGH -
Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC
( 1738 )
- 1, avenue de la Libération 78351 JOUY EN JOSAS CEDEX
- France
4
BETA -
Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée
( 93745 )
- Université de Lorraine, UFR Droit Sciences Economiques et Gestion, 13 place Carnot CO 70026, 54035 Nancy Cedex
Université de Strasbourg, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, 61 avenue de la Forêt Noire 67085 Strasbourg Cedex
- France
5
MIT -
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
( 301950 )
- 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139
- États-Unis
6
ETH Zürich -
Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]
( 180925 )
- Hauptgebäude, Rämistrasse 101, 8092 Zürich
- Suisse
7
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology [Haifa]
( 84142 )
- Technion City, Haifa 3200003
- Israël
8
Erasmus University Rotterdam
( 485122 )
- Pays-Bas
9
Max-Planck-Institut
( 300044 )
- Allemagne
10
THEMA -
Théorie économique, modélisation et applications
( 10592 )
- 33, boulevard du Port 95011 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex
- France
11
Universität Mannheim
( 254729 )
- Schloss, 68131 Mannheim
- Allemagne
12
UCLA-CS -
Computer Science Department [UCLA]
( 27787 )
- University of California, Santa Barbara Computer Science Department
- États-Unis
13
Department of Mathematics [Berkeley]
( 22856 )
- Department of Mathematics, University of California, Evans Hall Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
- États-Unis
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Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Référence interne |
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Mots-clés |
en
Black swans, risk, ambiguity, four-fold pattern, (non)-expected utility, probabilistic choices, experience-based decision making, description-based decision making.
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Origine :
Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
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