Format du dépôt |
Notice |
Type de dépôt |
Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Deleveraging crises and deep recessions: a behavioural approach
|
Résumé |
en
Macroeconomic dynamics are characterized by alternating patterns of periods of relative stability and large swings. Standard micro-founded macro-economic models account for these patterns through exogenous and persistent shocks. In this paper, we develop a fully decentralized and micro-founded macro-economic agent-based model, augmented with an opinion model, which produces endogenous waves of pessimism and optimism that feed back into firms' leverage and households' precautionary saving behaviour. A major emergent property of our model is precisely the complex successions of stable and unstable macro-economic regimes. The model is further able to account for a wide spectrum of macro-and micro empirical regularities. Within this framework, we analyse a series of macro-economic phenomena of key relevance in the current macro-economic debate, especially the occurrence of deleveraging crises and Fisherian debt-deflation recessions. Our analysis suggests that the relative dynamics of prices and wages and the resulting income distribution along a deflation-ary path are critical determinants of the severity of the recession, and the chances of recovery.
|
Auteur(s)
|
Pascal Seppecher
1, 2
, Isabelle Salle
3, 4, 5
1
GREDEG -
Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion
( 185786 )
- GREDEG - Bâtiment 2 - Campus Azur du CNRS - 250 rue Albert Einstein - CS 10269 - F
06905 SOPHIA ANTIPOLIS Cedex
- France
-
Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) ( 117617 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR7321 ( 441569 )
;
-
Université Côte d'Azur UMR7321 ( 1039632 )
2
CEPN -
Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord
( 147976 )
- UFR de Sciences Economiques, Université Paris 13, 99 avenue Jean-Baptiste Clément, F-93430, Villetaneuse.
- France
-
Université Paris 13 ( 15786 )
;
-
Université Sorbonne Paris Cité ( 303171 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR7234 ( 441569 )
3
Tinbergen Institute
( 223500 )
- France
-
Tinbergen Institute ( 322439 )
4
CeNDEF -
Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance
( 182772 )
- France
-
University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] = Universiteit van Amsterdam ( 120654 )
5
GREThA -
Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée
( 27589 )
- Avenue Léon Duguit 33608 PESSAC
- France
-
Université de Bordeaux ( 259761 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR5113 ( 441569 )
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2015-03
|
Date de publication électronique |
2015-03-26
|
Volume |
47
|
Numéro |
34-35
|
Page/Identifiant |
3771-3790
|
URL éditeur |
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00036846.2015.1021456
|
Domaine(s) |
-
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
-
Informatique [cs]/Modélisation et simulation
-
Informatique [cs]/Système multi-agents [cs.MA]
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
-
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy/E.E2.E20 - General
-
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E1 - General Aggregative Models/E.E1.E12 - Keynes • Keynesian • Post-Keynesian
-
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles
-
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C63 - Computational Techniques • Simulation Modeling
|
Collaboration/Projet |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Deleveraging crisis, Opinion dynamics, Prices-wages dynamics, Agent-based modelling
|
DOI |
10.1080/00036846.2015.1021456 |