CO 2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies
Nico Bauer
(1)
,
Valentina Bosetti
(2)
,
Meriem Hamdi-Cherif
(3)
,
Alban Kitous
(4)
,
David Mccollum
(5)
,
Aurélie Méjean
(3)
,
Shilpa Rao
(5)
,
Hal Turton
(6)
,
Leonidas Paroussos
(7)
,
Shuichi Ashina
(8)
,
Katherine Calvin
(9)
,
Kenichi Wada
(8)
,
Detlef van Vuuren
(10)
1
PIK -
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2 Dipartimento di Economia
3 CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
4 IPTS - JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
5 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
6 PSI - Paul Scherrer Institute
7 NTUA - National Technical University of Athens [Athens]
8 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
9 Joint Global Change Research Institute
10 Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
2 Dipartimento di Economia
3 CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
4 IPTS - JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
5 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
6 PSI - Paul Scherrer Institute
7 NTUA - National Technical University of Athens [Athens]
8 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
9 Joint Global Change Research Institute
10 Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
Nico Bauer
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 771519
- ORCID : 0000-0002-0211-4162
Valentina Bosetti
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1082331
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4970-0027
- IdRef : 140320660
Meriem Hamdi-Cherif
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 754422
- IdHAL : meriem-hamdi-cherif
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7511-354X
- IdRef : 197651585
Aurélie Méjean
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 16363
- IdHAL : aurelie-mejean
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2859-3613
Katherine Calvin
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 771031
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2191-4189
Detlef van Vuuren
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 770580
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0398-2831
- IdRef : 200058126
Résumé
This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short-and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger—twice and more— than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.
Format du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
CO 2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies
|
Résumé |
en
This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short-and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger—twice and more— than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.
|
Auteur(s) |
Nico Bauer
1
, Valentina Bosetti
2
, Meriem Hamdi-Cherif
3
, Alban Kitous
4
, David Mccollum
5
, Aurélie Méjean
3
, Shilpa Rao
5
, Hal Turton
6
, Leonidas Paroussos
7
, Shuichi Ashina
8
, Katherine Calvin
9
, Kenichi Wada
8
, Detlef van Vuuren
10
1
PIK -
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
( 232065 )
- Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam
- Allemagne
2
Dipartimento di Economia
( 506431 )
- Via Conservatorio, 7, 20122 Milano MI
- Italie
3
CIRED -
centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement
( 135977 )
- 45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle - 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex
- France
4
IPTS -
JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
( 263166 )
- C/ Inca Garcilaso, s/n 41092 Seville
- Espagne
5
IIASA -
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
( 487706 )
- Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
- Autriche
6
PSI -
Paul Scherrer Institute
( 1961 )
- Villigen PSI, CH5232 Villigen, Suisse
- Suisse
7
NTUA -
National Technical University of Athens [Athens]
( 58785 )
- Patission Complex, 42, Patission str, 10682 Athens
Zografou Campus - 9, Iroon Polytechniou str - 15780 Zografou, Athens
- Grèce
8
NIES -
National Institute for Environmental Studies
( 98417 )
- Tsukuba, Ibaraki
- Japon
9
Joint Global Change Research Institute
( 184336 )
- 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500,
College Park, MD 20740
- États-Unis
10
Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht]
( 300572 )
- Heidelberglaan 8, 3584 CS Utrecht
- Pays-Bas
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2015
|
Date de publication électronique |
2013-12-03
|
Volume |
90 Part A
|
Page/Identifiant |
243-256
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Collaboration/Projet |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Carbon leakage, Fossil fuel markets, Copenhagen Accord, Climate change mitigation policies, Inter-fuel substitution
|
DOI | 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.009 |
Origine :
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