Uncertainty of wheat water use: simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2
Davide Cammarano
(1, 2)
,
Reimund P. Rotter
(3, 4)
,
Senthold Asseng
(1)
,
Frank Ewert
(5, 6)
,
Daniel Wallach
(7)
,
Pierre Martre
(8, 9)
,
Jerry L. Hatfield
(10)
,
James W. Jones
(1)
,
Cynthia Rosenzweig
(11)
,
Alex C. Ruane
(11)
,
Kenneth J. Boote
(1)
,
Peter J. Thorburn
(12)
,
Kurt Christian Kersebaum
(13)
,
Pramod K. Aggarwal
(14)
,
Carlos Angulo
(6)
,
Bruno Basso
(15)
,
Patrick Bertuzzi
(16)
,
Christian Biernath
(17)
,
Nadine Brisson
(18)
,
Andrew J. Challinor
(14, 19)
,
Jordi Doltra
(20)
,
Sebastian Gayler
(21)
,
Richie Goldberg
(11)
,
Lee Heng
(22)
,
Josh Hooker
(23, 24)
,
Leslie A. Hunt
(25)
,
Joachim Ingwersen
(26)
,
Roberto C. Izaurralde
(27, 28)
,
Christoph Müller
(29)
,
Soora Naresh Kumar
(30)
,
Claas Nendel
(13)
,
Garry J. O'Leary
(31)
,
Jorgen E. Olesen
(32)
,
Tom M. Osborne
(33)
,
Taru Palosuo
(3)
,
Eckart Priesack
(17)
,
Dominique Ripoche
(16)
,
Mikhail A. Semenov
(34)
,
Iurii Shcherbak
(35)
,
Pasquale Steduto
(36)
,
Claudio O. Stöckle
(35)
,
Pierre Stratonovitch
(34)
,
Thilo Streck
(26)
,
Iwan Supit
(37)
,
Fulu Tao
(38, 3)
,
Maria Travasso
(39)
,
Katharina Waha
(40, 41)
,
Jeffrey W. White
(42)
,
Joost Wolf
(43)
1
UF|ABE -
Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
2 The James Hutton Institute
3 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
4 Department of Crop Sciences
5 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
6 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
7 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
8 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
9 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
10 National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment
11 NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration
12 Ecosystem sciences
13 Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
14 CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
15 Michigan State University [East Lansing]
16 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
17 German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH)
18 Agronomie
19 University of Leeds
20 CIFA - Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
21 Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster
22 IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna]
23 European Commission
24 School of Agriculture, Policy and Development
25 Department of Plant Agriculture
26 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
27 University of Maryland [College Park]
28 Texas A and M AgriLife Research
29 Leibniz Association
30 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
31 Landscape & Water Sciences
32 Department of Agroecology
33 Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England
34 Computational and Systems Biology Department
35 WSU - Washington State University
36 FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
37 WUR - Wageningen University and Research Centre
38 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
39 Institute for Climate and Water
40 CSIRO, Agr, 306 Carmody Rd, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia
41 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
42 USDA - United States Department of Agriculture
43 Plant Production Systems
2 The James Hutton Institute
3 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
4 Department of Crop Sciences
5 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
6 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
7 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
8 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
9 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
10 National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment
11 NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration
12 Ecosystem sciences
13 Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
14 CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
15 Michigan State University [East Lansing]
16 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
17 German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH)
18 Agronomie
19 University of Leeds
20 CIFA - Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
21 Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster
22 IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna]
23 European Commission
24 School of Agriculture, Policy and Development
25 Department of Plant Agriculture
26 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
27 University of Maryland [College Park]
28 Texas A and M AgriLife Research
29 Leibniz Association
30 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
31 Landscape & Water Sciences
32 Department of Agroecology
33 Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England
34 Computational and Systems Biology Department
35 WSU - Washington State University
36 FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
37 WUR - Wageningen University and Research Centre
38 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
39 Institute for Climate and Water
40 CSIRO, Agr, 306 Carmody Rd, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia
41 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
42 USDA - United States Department of Agriculture
43 Plant Production Systems
Davide Cammarano
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1071162
Frank Ewert
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 968227
Pierre Martre
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 183362
- IdHAL : pierre-martre
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7419-6558
- IdRef : 163589194
James W. Jones
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 958970
Andrew J. Challinor
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 968229
Christoph Müller
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772079
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2234-6902
Claas Nendel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772081
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7608-9097
Mikhail A. Semenov
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 774453
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1561-7113
Résumé
Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (T-eff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50% of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.
Domaines
Sciences du Vivant [q-bio] Sciences de l'environnement Sciences de l'Homme et Société Biologie végétaleFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Uncertainty of wheat water use: simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2
|
Résumé |
en
Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (T-eff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50% of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.
|
Auteur(s) |
Davide Cammarano
1, 2
, Reimund P. Rotter
3, 4
, Senthold Asseng
1
, Frank Ewert
5, 6
, Daniel Wallach
7
, Pierre Martre
8, 9
, Jerry L. Hatfield
10
, James W. Jones
1
, Cynthia Rosenzweig
11
, Alex C. Ruane
11
, Kenneth J. Boote
1
, Peter J. Thorburn
12
, Kurt Christian Kersebaum
13
, Pramod K. Aggarwal
14
, Carlos Angulo
6
, Bruno Basso
15
, Patrick Bertuzzi
16
, Christian Biernath
17
, Nadine Brisson
18
, Andrew J. Challinor
14, 19
, Jordi Doltra
20
, Sebastian Gayler
21
, Richie Goldberg
11
, Lee Heng
22
, Josh Hooker
23, 24
, Leslie A. Hunt
25
, Joachim Ingwersen
26
, Roberto C. Izaurralde
27, 28
, Christoph Müller
29
, Soora Naresh Kumar
30
, Claas Nendel
13
, Garry J. O'Leary
31
, Jorgen E. Olesen
32
, Tom M. Osborne
33
, Taru Palosuo
3
, Eckart Priesack
17
, Dominique Ripoche
16
, Mikhail A. Semenov
34
, Iurii Shcherbak
35
, Pasquale Steduto
36
, Claudio O. Stöckle
35
, Pierre Stratonovitch
34
, Thilo Streck
26
, Iwan Supit
37
, Fulu Tao
38, 3
, Maria Travasso
39
, Katharina Waha
40, 41
, Jeffrey W. White
42
, Joost Wolf
43
1
UF|ABE -
Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
( 262725 )
- University of Florida, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences,
1741 Museum Road, Gainesville, Florida 32611-0570
- États-Unis
2
The James Hutton Institute
( 483068 )
- Craigiebuckler Aberdeen AB15 8QH Scotland
- Royaume-Uni
3
LUKE -
Natural Resources Institute Finland
( 431710 )
- PO Box 68, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland
- Finlande
4
Department of Crop Sciences
( 513752 )
- Allemagne
5
ZALF -
Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
( 238209 )
- Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg
- Allemagne
6
INRES -
Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
( 211676 )
- Katzenburgweg 1, D-53115 Bonn
- Allemagne
7
AGIR -
AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
( 74637 )
- Centre de Recherches INRA de Toulouse Chemin de Borderouge 31326 CASTANET TOLOSAN
- France
8
LEPSE -
Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
( 37835 )
- Campus INRA / Montpellier SupAgro - 2, place Pierre Viala - 34060 Montpellier Cedex 2
Bat.7 IBIP
- France
9
GDEC -
Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
( 133378 )
- Site INRAE Crouël : 5, Chemin de Beaulieu, 63039 Clermont-Ferrand // Site Clermont : Campus Universitaire des Cézeaux, TSA 60026, 1 Impasse Amélie Murat, 63178 Aubière
- France
10
National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment
( 423695 )
- États-Unis
11
NASA -
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
( 1032959 )
- Palisades, California
- États-Unis
12
Ecosystem sciences
( 256702 )
- Toowoomba, Qld
- Australie
13
Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
( 513906 )
- Allemagne
14
CGIAR -
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
( 431412 )
- Kenya
15
Michigan State University [East Lansing]
( 235550 )
- 220 Trowbridge Rd
East Lansing, MI 48824
- États-Unis
16
AGROCLIM -
Agroclim
( 37672 )
- INRA Domaine Saint-Paul - Site Agroparc 228 route de l'Aérodrome CS40509 84914 AVIGNON CEDEX 9
- France
17
German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH)
( 120028 )
- Ingolstädter Landstraße 1 · D-85764 Neuherberg
- Allemagne
18
Agronomie
( 135614 )
- F-78850 Thiverval-Grignon
- France
19
University of Leeds
( 123346 )
- Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT
- Royaume-Uni
20
CIFA -
Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
( 508860 )
- Espagne
21
Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster
( 423702 )
- Allemagne
22
IAEA -
International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna]
( 224525 )
- Vienna International Centre, POB 100, A-1400 Vienna
- Autriche
23
European Commission
( 483062 )
- Italie
24
School of Agriculture, Policy and Development
( 423703 )
- Royaume-Uni
25
Department of Plant Agriculture
( 423705 )
- Canada
26
Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
( 255736 )
- Stuttgart
- Allemagne
27
University of Maryland [College Park]
( 75866 )
- College Park, MD 20742
- États-Unis
28
Texas A and M AgriLife Research
( 1035302 )
- États-Unis
29
Leibniz Association
( 309181 )
- Chausseestraße 111, 10115 Berlin
- Allemagne
30
CESCRA -
Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
( 444251 )
- Inde
31
Landscape & Water Sciences
( 497064 )
- Australie
32
Department of Agroecology
( 255689 )
- Tjele
- Danemark
33
Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England
( 1046808 )
- France
34
Computational and Systems Biology Department
( 423713 )
- Royaume-Uni
35
WSU -
Washington State University
( 303893 )
- Pullman, WA
- États-Unis
36
FAO -
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
( 340760 )
- France
37
WUR -
Wageningen University and Research Centre
( 572415 )
- Pays-Bas
38
IGSNRR -
Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
( 262741 )
- 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China
- Chine
39
Institute for Climate and Water
( 426275 )
- Argentine
40
CSIRO, Agr, 306 Carmody Rd, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia
( 1046809 )
- France
41
Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
( 1046810 )
- France
42
USDA -
United States Department of Agriculture
( 303362 )
- États-Unis
43
Plant Production Systems
( 423371 )
- Pays-Bas
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2016
|
Volume |
198
|
Page/Identifiant |
80-92
|
URL éditeur |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03784290/198/supp/C
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Licence |
Paternité - Partage selon les Conditions Initiales
|
Version du document |
version éditeur
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Voir aussi |
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Indexation contrôlée |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Transpiration efficiency, Water use, Uncertainty, Sensitivity
fr
Multi-model simulation
|
DOI | 10.1016/j.fcr.2016.08.015 |
ProdINRA | 377743 |
UT key WOS | 000386409300009 |
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