Transformative Change Needs Direction
Sander Jacobs
(1)
,
Fernando Santos-Martín
(2)
,
Eeva Primmer
(3)
,
Fanny Boeraeve
(4)
,
Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez
(5)
,
Vânia Proença
(6)
,
Martin Schlaepfer
(7)
,
Lluis Brotons
(8, 5)
,
Robert Dunford
(9)
,
Sandra Lavorel
(10)
,
Antoine Guisan
(11)
,
Joachim Claudet
(12)
,
Zuzana Harmáčková
(13)
,
Inge Liekens
(14)
,
Jennifer Hauck
(15)
,
Kasper Kok
(16)
,
Yves Zinngrebe
(17)
,
Simona Pedde
(16)
,
Bálint Czúcz
(18, 19)
,
Cosimo Solidoro
(20)
,
Matthew Cantele
(21)
,
Christian Rixen
(22)
,
Anna Heck
(1)
,
Jomme Desair
(1)
,
Tobias Plieninger
(23)
,
Paula Harrison
(24)
1
INBO -
Research Institute for Nature and Forest
2 University King Juan Carlos [Madrid]
3 SYKE - Finnish Environment Institute
4 Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Gembloux]
5 CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries
6 ULISBOA - Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon
7 EnviroSPACE Laboratory - Forel Institute
8 CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]
9 CEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford]
10 LECA - Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine
11 DEE - Department of Ecology and Evolution [UNIL, Lausanne] = Département d'écologie et évolution
12 CRIOBE - Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement
13 CAS - Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague]
14 VITO - Flemish Institute for Technological Research
15 CoKnow Consulting
16 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
17 UFZ - Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
18 CTE/DB - Centre Thématique Européen sur la Diversité Biologique
19 Centre for Ecological Research [Budapest]
20 OGS - Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale
21 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
22 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
23 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
24 CEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Lancaster]
2 University King Juan Carlos [Madrid]
3 SYKE - Finnish Environment Institute
4 Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Gembloux]
5 CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries
6 ULISBOA - Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon
7 EnviroSPACE Laboratory - Forel Institute
8 CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]
9 CEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford]
10 LECA - Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine
11 DEE - Department of Ecology and Evolution [UNIL, Lausanne] = Département d'écologie et évolution
12 CRIOBE - Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement
13 CAS - Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague]
14 VITO - Flemish Institute for Technological Research
15 CoKnow Consulting
16 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
17 UFZ - Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
18 CTE/DB - Centre Thématique Européen sur la Diversité Biologique
19 Centre for Ecological Research [Budapest]
20 OGS - Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale
21 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
22 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
23 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
24 CEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Lancaster]
Sander Jacobs
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1194797
- ORCID : 0000-0003-4674-4817
Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1194798
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5815-6089
Vânia Proença
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1194799
- ORCID : 0000-0001-8245-357X
Sandra Lavorel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 757640
- IdHAL : sandra-lavorel
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7300-2811
- IdRef : 261930206
Joachim Claudet
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 174595
- IdHAL : joachim-claudet
- ORCID : 0000-0001-6295-1061
- IdRef : 109209729
Zuzana Harmáčková
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1194801
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7711-4135
Inge Liekens
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1194802
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9708-7592
Kasper Kok
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1194804
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6319-9227
Bálint Czúcz
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1221816
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6462-7633
Jomme Desair
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1194805
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9349-078X
Tobias Plieninger
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1194806
- ORCID : 0000-0003-1478-2587
Paula Harrison
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1194807
- ORCID : 0000-0002-9873-3338
Résumé
Comparing the impacts of future scenarios is essential for developing and guiding the political sustainability agenda. This review-based analysis compares six IPBES scenarios for their impacts on 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 20 biodiversity targets (Aichi targets) for the Europe and Central Asia regions. The comparison is based on a review of 143 modeled scenarios synthesized in a plural cost–benefit approach which provides the distances to multiple policy goals. We confirm and substantiate the claim that transformative change is vital but also point out which directions for political transformation are to be preferred. The hopeful message is that large societal losses might still be avoided, and multiple benefits can be generated over the coming decades and centuries. Yet, policies will need to strongly steer away from scenarios based on regional competition, inequality, and economic optimism.
Format du dépôt | Fichier |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Transformative Change Needs Direction
|
Résumé |
en
Comparing the impacts of future scenarios is essential for developing and guiding the political sustainability agenda. This review-based analysis compares six IPBES scenarios for their impacts on 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 20 biodiversity targets (Aichi targets) for the Europe and Central Asia regions. The comparison is based on a review of 143 modeled scenarios synthesized in a plural cost–benefit approach which provides the distances to multiple policy goals. We confirm and substantiate the claim that transformative change is vital but also point out which directions for political transformation are to be preferred. The hopeful message is that large societal losses might still be avoided, and multiple benefits can be generated over the coming decades and centuries. Yet, policies will need to strongly steer away from scenarios based on regional competition, inequality, and economic optimism.
|
Auteur(s) |
Sander Jacobs
1
, Fernando Santos-Martín
2
, Eeva Primmer
3
, Fanny Boeraeve
4
, Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez
5
, Vânia Proença
6
, Martin Schlaepfer
7
, Lluis Brotons
8, 5
, Robert Dunford
9
, Sandra Lavorel
10
, Antoine Guisan
11
, Joachim Claudet
12
, Zuzana Harmáčková
13
, Inge Liekens
14
, Jennifer Hauck
15
, Kasper Kok
16
, Yves Zinngrebe
17
, Simona Pedde
16
, Bálint Czúcz
18, 19
, Cosimo Solidoro
20
, Matthew Cantele
21
, Christian Rixen
22
, Anna Heck
1
, Jomme Desair
1
, Tobias Plieninger
23
, Paula Harrison
24
1
INBO -
Research Institute for Nature and Forest
( 355804 )
- Instituut Natuur- en Bosonderzoek
Brussels
- Belgique
2
University King Juan Carlos [Madrid]
( 466688 )
- Calle Tulipán, s/n, 28933 Móstoles, Madrid
- Espagne
3
SYKE -
Finnish Environment Institute
( 409463 )
- P.O.Box 140, FI-00251 Helsinki
- Finlande
4
Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Gembloux]
( 491190 )
- Passage des Déportés, 2
B-5030 Gembloux
- Belgique
5
CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries
( 1007287 )
- Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
- Espagne
6
ULISBOA -
Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon
( 300565 )
- Portugal
7
EnviroSPACE Laboratory - Forel Institute
( 160583 )
- University of Geneva, Battelle - Building D, 7 route de Drize, CH-1227 Carouge
- Suisse
8
CSIC -
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain]
( 106380 )
- Serrano 117, 28006, Madrid
- Espagne
9
CEH -
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford]
( 141458 )
- Maclean Building Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford OX10 8BB
- Royaume-Uni
10
LECA -
Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine
( 1043062 )
- bat. D - Biologie 2233 Rue de la piscine - BP 53 38041 GRENOBLE CEDEX 9
- France
11
DEE -
Department of Ecology and Evolution [UNIL, Lausanne] = Département d'écologie et évolution
( 460252 )
- UNIL - Sorge Le Biophore CH - 1015 Lausanne
- Suisse
12
CRIOBE -
Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement
( 107006 )
- BP 1013 Papetoiai 98729 PAPETOAI
- France
13
CAS -
Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague]
( 311871 )
- Národní 3, 117 20 Prague 1
- Tchéquie
14
VITO -
Flemish Institute for Technological Research
( 68395 )
- Onderzoek Boeretang 200, B-2400 MOL, Belgium
- Belgique
15
CoKnow Consulting
( 567202 )
- Mühlweg 3, 04838 Jesewitz, Germany
- Allemagne
16
WUR -
Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
( 356395 )
- Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen
- Pays-Bas
17
UFZ -
Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research
( 234416 )
- 04318 Leipzig, Germany
- Allemagne
18
CTE/DB -
Centre Thématique Européen sur la Diversité Biologique
( 430308 )
- Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle - 36 rue Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire - 75005 Paris
- France
19
Centre for Ecological Research [Budapest]
( 434180 )
- 8237 Tihany, Klebelsberg Kuno u. 3.
- Hongrie
20
OGS -
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale
( 215849 )
- Borgo Grotta Gigante 42/C - 34010 - Sgonico Trieste
- Italie
21
IIASA -
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
( 487706 )
- Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
- Autriche
22
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
( 301625 )
- Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf
- Suisse
23
Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
( 1065644 )
- Wilhelmsplatz 1, 37073 Göttingen, Allemagne
- Allemagne
24
CEH -
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Lancaster]
( 141457 )
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP
- Royaume-Uni
|
Date de publication électronique |
2022-11-10
|
Titre de la collection |
Ecosystem Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation for Sustainable Development
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication |
2022-11-10
|
Volume |
14
|
Numéro |
22
|
Page/Identifiant |
14844
|
Financement |
|
Domaine(s) |
|
DOI | 10.3390/su142214844 |
Origine :
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