Format du dépôt |
Fichier |
Type de dépôt |
Pré-publication, Document de travail |
Titre |
en
How can technology significantly contribute to climate change mitigation?
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Résumé |
en
This paper highlights how technology can contribute to reaching the COP21 goals of net zero CO2 emissions and global warming below 2°C at the end of the century. It uses the ACCL model, particularly adapted to quantify the consequences of energy price shocks and technology improvements on CO2 emissions, temperature changes, climate damage and GDP. Our simulations show that without climate policies, i.e. a 'business as usual' scenario, the warming may be +4 to +5°C in 2100, with considerable climate damage. We also find that an acceleration in 'usual technical progress'-not targeted at reducing greenhouse gas intensity-makes global warming and climate damage worse than the 'business as usual' scenario. According to our estimates, the world does not achieve climate goals in 2100 without technological changes to avoid CO2 emissions. To hit such climatic targets, intervening only through the relative price of different energy types, e.g. via a carbon tax, requires challenging hypotheses of international coordination and price increase for polluting energies. We assess a multilever climate strategy, associating diverse price and technology measures. This mix combines energy efficiency gains, carbon sequestration, and a decrease of 3% per year in the relative price of noncarbon-emitting electricity with a 1 to 1.5% annual rise in the relative price of our four polluting energy sources. None of these components alone is sufficient to reach climate objectives. Our last and most important finding is that our composite scenario achieves the climate goals.
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Auteur(s)
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Claire Alestra
1
, Gilbert Cette
2
, Valérie Chouard
3
, Rémy Lecat
3
1
AMSE -
Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques
( 526949 )
- 5-9 Boulevard Bourdet
CS 50498
13205 Marseille Cedex 1
- France
-
École des hautes études en sciences sociales UMR7316 ( 99539 )
;
-
Aix Marseille Université UMR7316 ( 198056 )
;
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École Centrale de Marseille UMR7316 ( 300415 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR7316 ( 441569 )
2
NEOMA -
Neoma Business School
( 232915 )
- NEOMA Business School - Siège Social
1 Rue du Maréchal Juin
BP 215
76825 Mont Saint Aignan Cedex
- France
3
Centre de recherche de la Banque de France
( 171776 )
- 31 rue Croix des petits champs 75001 PARIS - France
- France
-
Banque de France ( 307910 )
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Langue du document |
Anglais
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Date de production/écriture |
2023-01
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Domaine(s) |
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Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
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Projet(s) ANR |
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Mots-clés (JEL) |
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy/E.E2.E23 - Production
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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H - Public Economics/H.H2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue/H.H2.H23 - Externalities • Redistributive Effects • Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
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O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
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O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity/O.O4.O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth • Aggregate Productivity • Cross-Country Output Convergence
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O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O5 - Economywide Country Studies/O.O5.O57 - Comparative Studies of Countries
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Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy
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Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q48 - Government Policy
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Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming
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Référence interne |
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Working paper AMSE 2023-01
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Mots-clés |
en
Climate, Global warming, Technology, Environmental policy, Growth, Long-term projections, Uncertainties, Renewable energy
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