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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2007

Sensitivity of plague local epidemics to the population size and spatial distribution

Vincent Laperrière
Dominique Badariotti
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Arnaud Banos

Résumé

This document presents some simulation results obtained on an epidemic model, SIMPEST, designed to simulate the dynamics of local bubonic plague epidemics. The individual-based approach allows to consider discrete individuals, their spatial behaviour, and the contingency of interactions among them. This approach allows to perform investigations about how various factors, such as sociological or geographical ones, may influence the development of a local epidemic. We performed some sensitivity analysis on two initial conditions: population density and habitat distribution. The influence of these input variables on the epidemic dynamics is investigated using some key output variables. Our simulation results can then be compared with some well-established elements of the theory of epidemics, more specifically the existence of an epidemic threshold on the population size and the influence of the contact network structure on the epidemic force.
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Dates et versions

halshs-00195417 , version 1 (10-12-2007)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : halshs-00195417 , version 1

Citer

Vincent Laperrière, Dominique Badariotti, Arnaud Banos. Sensitivity of plague local epidemics to the population size and spatial distribution: Contribution of an individual based model, SIMPEST. ECTQG 07, 15th European Colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography, Sep 2007, Montreux, Switzerland. 460 p. ⟨halshs-00195417⟩
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