Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen - HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Article dans une revue Energy Policy Année : 2008

Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen

Résumé

High crude oil prices, uncertainties about the consequences of climate change and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels, such as non-conventional oil and biofuels. This paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of non-conventional oil, including the role of learning-by-doing in driving down costs. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of both learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying bitumen, which can then be upgraded into synthetic crude oil, a substitute to conventional oil. The results show large uncertainties in the future costs of supplying bitumen from Canadian oil sands deposits, with a 90% confidence interval of $7-12 in 2030, and $6-15 in 2060 (2005 US$). The influence of each parameter on the supply costs is examined, with the minimum supply cost, the learning rate (LR), and the depletion curve exponent having the largest influence. Over time, the influence of the LR on the supply costs decreases, while the influence of the depletion curve exponent increases.
Loading...

Dates et versions

halshs-00736147, version 1 (27-09-2012)

Identifiants

Citer

Aurélie Méjean, Chris Hope. Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen. Energy Policy, 2008, 36 (11), pp.4205-4216. ⟨10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.023⟩. ⟨halshs-00736147⟩
104 Consultations
0 Téléchargements
Dernière date de mise à jour le 20/04/2024
comment ces indicateurs sont-ils produits

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Plus