Optimal fertility along the life cycle
Pierre Pestieau
(1, 2, 3, 4)
,
Grégory Ponthière
(3, 4)
Grégory Ponthière
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1129355
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7328-4441
- IdRef : 189782714
Résumé
We explore the optimal fertility timing in a four-period OLG economy with physical capital, whose specificity is to include not one, but two reproduction periods. It is shown that, for a given total fertility rate, the economy exhibits quite different dynamics, depending on the timing of births. If all births take place in the late reproduction period, there exists no stable stationary equilibrium and the economy exhibits cyclical dynamics due to labor growth fluctuations. We characterize the long-run social optimum and show that optimal consumptions and capital depend on the optimal cohort growth factor, so that there is no one-to-one substitutability between early and late fertility. We also extend Samuelson's Serendipity Theorem to our economy and study the robustness of our results to: (1) endogenizing fertility timing, (2) assuming rational anticipations about factor prices, (3) adding a third reproduction period.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Optimal fertility along the life cycle
|
Résumé |
en
We explore the optimal fertility timing in a four-period OLG economy with physical capital, whose specificity is to include not one, but two reproduction periods. It is shown that, for a given total fertility rate, the economy exhibits quite different dynamics, depending on the timing of births. If all births take place in the late reproduction period, there exists no stable stationary equilibrium and the economy exhibits cyclical dynamics due to labor growth fluctuations. We characterize the long-run social optimum and show that optimal consumptions and capital depend on the optimal cohort growth factor, so that there is no one-to-one substitutability between early and late fertility. We also extend Samuelson's Serendipity Theorem to our economy and study the robustness of our results to: (1) endogenizing fertility timing, (2) assuming rational anticipations about factor prices, (3) adding a third reproduction period.
|
Auteur(s) |
Pierre Pestieau
1, 2, 3, 4
, Grégory Ponthière
3, 4
1
CORE -
Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain]
( 48233 )
- 34, Voie du Roman Pays B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve
- Belgique
2
CEPR -
Center for Economic Policy Research
( 143559 )
- Royaume-Uni
3
PSE -
Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques
( 139754 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
4
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Audience |
Non spécifiée
|
Date de publication |
2014-01
|
Volume |
55
|
Numéro |
1
|
Page/Identifiant |
185-224
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Financement |
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Childbearing ages, Early and late motherhoods, Fertility Overlapping générations, Social optimum
|
DOI | 10.1007/s00199-013-0747-1 |
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