Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties in climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve in a Mediterranean catchment.
Résumé
Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties were quantified and compared
while assessing climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve (FDC) in a
Mediterranean catchment. Simulations of the SWAT model using an ensemble of behavioural
parameter sets derived from the GLUE method were approximated by feed-forward artificial neural
networks (FF-NN). Then, outputs of climate models were used as inputs to the FF-NN models.
Subsequently, projected changes in runoff and FDC were calculated and their associated uncertainty
was partitioned into climate model and hydrological parameter uncertainties. Runoff and daily
discharge of the Chiba catchment were expected to decrease in response to drier and warmer climatic
conditions in 2050s. For both hydrologic indicators uncertainty magnitude increased as moving from
dry to wet period. The decomposition of uncertainty demonstrated that climate models uncertainty
dominated hydrological parameter uncertainty in wet period, whereas in dry period hydrologic
parametric uncertainty became more important.
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