The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database - HAL-SHS - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Environmental Modelling and Software Année : 2016

The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database

Résumé

The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that a diversity of socio-economic pathways can lead to the same radiative forcing, and therefore that a given level of radiative forcing can have very different socio-economic impacts. We propose a methodology that implements a “scenario discovery” cluster analysis and systematically identifies diverse groups of scenarios that share common outcomes among a database of socio-economic scenarios. We demonstrate the methodology with two examples using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways framework. We find that high emissions scenarios can be associated with either high or low per capita GDP growth, and that high productivity growth and catch-up are not necessarily associated with high per capita GDP and high emissions.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Guivarch et al_2016_diversity of socioeconomic scenarios_hal.pdf (1.67 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...

Dates et versions

halshs-01292901 , version 1 (17-04-2018)

Identifiants

Citer

Céline Guivarch, Julie Rozenberg, Vanessa Schweizer. The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database. Environmental Modelling and Software, 2016, 80, pp.336-363. ⟨10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.006⟩. ⟨halshs-01292901⟩
366 Consultations
269 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More