Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low- carbon world: The case of Europe - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles Energy Economics Year : 2016

Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low- carbon world: The case of Europe

(1) , (2)
1
2

Abstract

This analysis contributes to recent efforts to better understand the evolution of energy security in a low-carbon world. Our objective was to assess how energy security may change over the course of the century, and to what extent these changes depend on the uncertainty of the factors that drive the evolution of energy systems, including future technologies, improved energy efficiency, fossil fuel resources and markets, and economic growth. To this end, we focused on Europe and on a set of energy security indicators based on three perspectives: sovereignty, robustness and resilience. A database of scenarios allowed us to account for the large uncertainties surrounding the determinants of future energy systems. We then analyzed the way energy security indicators evolve over time, and how their trajectories vary across scenarios. We identified the indicators that vary the most between scenarios, i.e. the indicators whose future evolution is the most uncertain. For these indicators, we performed an analysis of variance to estimate the contribution of each driver to the uncertainty of the indicators. The paper shows that the European double target of significantly decreasing CO 2 emissions and increasing the security of the supply of energy may be difficult to reach. Nevertheless, some levers could facilitate the transition to a low-carbon society while improving energy security, or by limiting its degradation. The results emphasize the importance of policies in favor of low or zero carbon technologies in power generation, but also the differences in their contributions to the complete uncertainty of the indicators. Policies promoting energy efficiency also play a role but only in the resilience of TPES. These policies are thus important levers for mitigating the negative impacts of climate policies on energy security.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Guivarch and Monjon_2016_Energy security_hal.pdf (1.21 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Files produced by the author(s)
Loading...

Dates and versions

halshs-01348948 , version 1 (17-04-2018)

Identifiers

Cite

Céline Guivarch, Stéphanie Monjon. Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low- carbon world: The case of Europe. Energy Economics, 2016, 64, pp.530 - 541. ⟨10.1016/j.eneco.2016.04.007⟩. ⟨halshs-01348948⟩
279 View
360 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More