Evaluating intergenerational risks
Stéphane Zuber
(1, 2, 3)
,
Geir B. Asheim
(4)
Stéphane Zuber
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 5100
- IdHAL : szuber
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4111-2397
- IdRef : 196910498
Résumé
Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). We respond to this call by proposing and axiomatizing probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU) through a key axiom ensuring that the social welfare order both is ethical and satisfies first-order stochastic dominance. PARDCLU yields a new useful perspective on intergenerational risks, is ethical in contrast to discounted utilitarianism, and avoids objections that have been raised against other ethical criteria. We show that PARDCLU handles situations with positive probability of human extinction and is linked to decision theory by yielding rank-dependent expected utilitarianism—but with additional structure—in a special case.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Résumé |
en
Climate policies have stochastic consequences that involve a great number of generations. This calls for evaluating social risk (what kind of societies will future people be born into) rather than individual risk (what will happen to people during their own lifetimes). We respond to this call by proposing and axiomatizing probability adjusted rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism (PARDCLU) through a key axiom ensuring that the social welfare order both is ethical and satisfies first-order stochastic dominance. PARDCLU yields a new useful perspective on intergenerational risks, is ethical in contrast to discounted utilitarianism, and avoids objections that have been raised against other ethical criteria. We show that PARDCLU handles situations with positive probability of human extinction and is linked to decision theory by yielding rank-dependent expected utilitarianism—but with additional structure—in a special case.
|
Titre |
en
Evaluating intergenerational risks
|
Auteur(s) |
Stéphane Zuber
1, 2, 3
, Geir B. Asheim
4
1
CES -
Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
( 15080 )
- Maison des Sciences Économiques - 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital - 75647 Paris Cedex 13
- France
2
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
3
CNRS -
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
( 441569 )
- France
4
Department of Economics [Oslo]
( 244747 )
- Postboks 1095 Blindern N-0317 Oslo
- Norvège
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Date de production/écriture |
2016-01
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Date de publication |
2016-08
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Mots-clés (JEL) |
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Financement |
|
Projet(s) ANR |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Population ethics, Social discounting, Social evaluation, Decision-making under risk, Critical-level utilitarianism
|
DOI | 10.1016/j.jmateco.2016.05.005 |
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