The Euro and the Crisis: Evidence on Recent Fiscal Multipliers
Résumé
Only several years after Euro banknotes and coins were put into circulation, the 1
Eurozone was struck by the global financial and economic crisis. Originated from the
US, the crisis progressively gained in intensity when reaching the Eurozone,
nourished by a wide variety of factors such as major fiscal worsening caused by
extreme increases in public spending (for example, wages and pensions, as in Greece
or Portugal), property bubbles weakening the financial sector (Spain), loss of
confidence due to false public statements on the condition of fiscal accounts (Greece)
generating skyjumping spreads and snow-ball effects on debt dynamics, etc. In a
context of financial contagion, these imbalances coagulated into a Eurozone crisis, of
such a magnitude to the point of being a major threatening for the perenity of the
Eurozone itself. At a global level, the economic importance of the Eurozone and
the negative spillovers to integrated markets arising from its potential disappearance
urged major institutions, including the IMF, the World Bank, the EIB or the EBRD,
to join effort with EU- (such as the European Financial Stability Mechanism) or
Eurozone-based (such as the European Financial Stability Facility) mechanisms in
providing massive bailout for many Eurozone countries. At a national level, the
crisis was associated to changes in the political colour of governments in many
Eurozone countries (for example, Greece, Italy, Portugal or Spain). But more
importantly, many governments adopted national-level massive fiscal stimuli, in
addition to European-level fiscal stimuli, such as the European Economic Recovery
Plan, estimated to around 2 % of the EU GDP cumulated for the 2009- 2010 period.
However, since 2011, given the deterioration of their public finances, many European
countries adopted large fiscal consolidation plans.