Layoffs, recalls and experience rating
Résumé
In the U.S., between 30% and 50% of the unemployment spells end due to the recall
of the workers to their last employer. The extensive use of rehiring may amplify labor
market fluctuations and may have damaging consequence on the sustainability of the
unemployment insurance (UI) system. In order to allocate the UI costs to firms with
more volatile employment, the U.S. adopted an experience rating (ER) system. Under
the ER system, firms are penalized for their past layoffs through a higher payroll tax
in the future. In this paper we investigate the quantitative impact of the ER system on
layoffs and recalls. We build a matching model in which heterogeneity in firms’ layoffs
history give rise to a distribution of tax rates among firms. We present a very detailed
data set on firms distribution across tax rate in the U.S. from 1998 to 2016. The model
matches a wide spectrum of moments of experience-rated firms distributions found in
the data. Our simulations show that experience rating reduces job separations but also
recalls in recessions. Unemployment would have been higher, especially in the trough
of the Great Recession, in the absence of an experience rating tax.
Domaines
Economies et financesOrigine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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