Towards agent-based integrated assessment models: examples, challenges, and future developments
Francesco Lamperti
(1, 2, 3)
,
Antoine Mandel
(4, 5)
,
Mauro Napoletano
(6, 2)
,
Alessandro Sapio
(7, 2, 8)
,
Andrea Roventini
(9, 2, 6)
,
Tomas Balint
(4)
,
Igor Khorenzhenko
(4, 10)
1
Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM)
2 SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]
3 Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan
4 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
5 PSE - Paris School of Economics
6 OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)
7 DISAE
8 Department of Business and Economics, Parthenope University of Naples
9 EconomiX - EconomiX
10 Universität Bielefeld = Bielefeld University
2 SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]
3 Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan
4 CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
5 PSE - Paris School of Economics
6 OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)
7 DISAE
8 Department of Business and Economics, Parthenope University of Naples
9 EconomiX - EconomiX
10 Universität Bielefeld = Bielefeld University
Francesco Lamperti
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 992128
Antoine Mandel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 13007
- IdHAL : antoine-mandel
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7180-950X
- IdRef : 117013714
Mauro Napoletano
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 741152
- IdHAL : mauro-napoletano
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8128-6674
- IdRef : 167473670
Andrea Roventini
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1068864
Résumé
Understanding the complex, dynamic, and non-linear relationships between human activities, the environment and the evolution of the climate is pivotal for policy design and requires appropriate tools. Despite the existence of different attempts to link the economy (or parts of it) to the evolution of the climate, results have often been disappointing and criticized. In this paper, we discuss the use of agent-based modeling for climate policy integrated assessment. First, we identify the main limitations of current mainstream models and stress how framing the problem from a complex system perspective might help, in particular when extreme climate conditions are at stake and general equilibrium effects are questionable. Second, we present two agent-based models that serve as prototypes for the analysis of coupled climate, energy, and macroeconomic dynamics. We argue that such models constitute examples of a promising approach for the integrated assessment of climate change and economic dynamics. They allow a bottom-up representation of climate damages and their cross-sectoral percolation, naturally embed distributional issues, and traditionally account for the role of finance in sustaining economic development and shaping the dynamics of energy transitions. All these issues are at the fore-front of the research in integrated assessment. Finally, we provide a careful discussion of testable policy exercises, modeling limitations, and open challenges for this stream of research. Notwithstanding great potential, there is a long way-to-go for agent-based models to catch-up with the richness of many existing integrated assessment models and overcome their major problems. This should encourage research in the area.
Domaines
Economies et financesFormat du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Towards agent-based integrated assessment models: examples, challenges, and future developments
|
Résumé |
en
Understanding the complex, dynamic, and non-linear relationships between human activities, the environment and the evolution of the climate is pivotal for policy design and requires appropriate tools. Despite the existence of different attempts to link the economy (or parts of it) to the evolution of the climate, results have often been disappointing and criticized. In this paper, we discuss the use of agent-based modeling for climate policy integrated assessment. First, we identify the main limitations of current mainstream models and stress how framing the problem from a complex system perspective might help, in particular when extreme climate conditions are at stake and general equilibrium effects are questionable. Second, we present two agent-based models that serve as prototypes for the analysis of coupled climate, energy, and macroeconomic dynamics. We argue that such models constitute examples of a promising approach for the integrated assessment of climate change and economic dynamics. They allow a bottom-up representation of climate damages and their cross-sectoral percolation, naturally embed distributional issues, and traditionally account for the role of finance in sustaining economic development and shaping the dynamics of energy transitions. All these issues are at the fore-front of the research in integrated assessment. Finally, we provide a careful discussion of testable policy exercises, modeling limitations, and open challenges for this stream of research. Notwithstanding great potential, there is a long way-to-go for agent-based models to catch-up with the richness of many existing integrated assessment models and overcome their major problems. This should encourage research in the area.
|
Auteur(s) |
Francesco Lamperti
1, 2, 3
, Antoine Mandel
4, 5
, Mauro Napoletano
6, 2
, Alessandro Sapio
7, 2, 8
, Andrea Roventini
9, 2, 6
, Tomas Balint
4
, Igor Khorenzhenko
4, 10
1
Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM)
( 228197 )
- Piazza Martiri della Libertà, 33, 56127 Pisa
- Italie
2
SSSUP -
Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa]
( 58000 )
- Piazza Martiri della Libertà 33 - 56127 Pisa
- Italie
3
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan
( 207636 )
- France
4
CES -
Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne
( 15080 )
- Maison des Sciences Économiques - 106-112 Boulevard de l'Hôpital - 75647 Paris Cedex 13
- France
5
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
6
OFCE -
Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po)
( 250936 )
- 10 place de Catalogne - 75014 Paris
- France
7
DISAE
( 226793 )
- DISAE, Università di Napoli Parthenope, via Generale Parisi 13, 80132 Napoli, Italy
- Italie
8
Department of Business and Economics, Parthenope University of Naples
( 466371 )
- Italie
9
EconomiX -
EconomiX
( 2564 )
- Bâtiment G
200 Avenue de la République
92001 NANTERRE CEDEX
- France
10
Universität Bielefeld = Bielefeld University
( 61197 )
- Universitätsstraße 25 D-33615 Bielefeld
- Allemagne
|
Date de publication |
2019-03-01
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Internationale
|
Date de publication électronique |
2018-03-05
|
Commentaire |
The authors express their gratitude to two anonymous referees whose comments improved the quality of the paper. The authors would like to acknowledge financial support from different European Projects. Francesco Lamperti, Antoine Mandel, Mauro Napoletano, Andrea Roventini, and Alessandro Sapio acknowledge financial support from European Union 7th FP grant agreement no. 603416—IMPRESSIONS. Tomas Balint and Antoine Mandel acknowledge financial support from European Union 7th FP grant agreement no. 610704—SIMPOL. Antoine Mandel, Mauro Napoletano, and Andrea Roventini acknowledge financial support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 640772—DOLFINS and no. 649186—ISIGrowth. Alessandro Sapio acknowledges financial support by Parthenope University, Bando di sostegno alla ricerca individuale per il triennio 2015–2017, annualitá 2015 & 2016. All the usual disclaimers apply.
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Projet(s) Européen(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Climate change, Climate policy, Integrated assessment, Transitions, Agent-based models
|
DOI | 10.1007/s10113-018-1287-9 |
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