Format du dépôt |
Fichier |
Type de dépôt |
Pré-publication, Document de travail |
Titre |
en
Demographics in MENA countries: a major driver for economic growth
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Résumé |
en
MENA region is undergoing rapid demographic transition, where 50% of the population is under the age 25 and high youth unemployment rates are argued to be one of the main sources of political instability. Fighting youth ex- clusion from work is one of the main challenges in the region. In this paper we evaluate the economic impact of the demographic transition for selected coun- tries which experience di_erent speeds of transition, namely: Iran, Morocco and Egypt. The impact of demographic shift on the evolution of human capital stock and physical capital stock, has been highlighted by the literature. Since _nan- cial markets play a crucial role to allocate capital and channel the funds to the productive sector, it is hence fundamental to take into account the role of the _nancial markets in the growth process associated with demographic change. We have developed a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with a cost for capital mobilisation as a proxy for _nancial markets' e_ciency. We have found that the demographic shift will be an important driver for growth in the upcoming decades. Furthermore, our results show that a more e_cient _nancial sector leads to better economic performance. Speci_cally, youth are the primary bene_ciaries: an increase in the _nancial sector e_ciency can reduce up to 8 percentage points of the youngest age group unemployment.
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Auteur(s)
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Yeganeh Forouheshfar
1, 2, 3, 4, 5
, Najat El Mekkaoui
1, 2, 3, 4, 5
, Hippolyte d'Albis
6, 7
1
Université Paris Dauphine-PSL
( 300302 )
- Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny
75775 PARIS Cedex 16
- France
-
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres ( 564132 )
2
IRD -
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
( 67872 )
- Siège
Le Sextant
44, bd de Dunkerque
CS 90009
13572 Marseille cedex 02
- France
3
PSL -
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
( 564132 )
- 60 rue Mazarine 75006 Paris
- France
4
LEDa -
Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine
( 559342 )
- Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny - 75775 PARIS Cedex 16
- France
-
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement UMR260 ( 67872 )
;
-
Université Paris Dauphine-PSL ( 300302 )
;
-
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres ( 564132 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR8007 ( 441569 )
5
DIAL -
Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme
( 12772 )
- DIAL - 4 rue d'Enghien - 75010 Paris
- France
6
PSE -
Paris School of Economics
( 301309 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
-
Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne ( 7550 )
;
-
École normale supérieure - Paris ( 59704 )
;
-
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres ( 564132 )
;
-
École des hautes études en sciences sociales ( 99539 )
;
-
École des Ponts ParisTech ( 301545 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( 441569 )
;
-
Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement ( 577435 )
7
PJSE -
Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
( 578027 )
- 48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris
- France
-
Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne UMR8545 ( 7550 )
;
-
École normale supérieure - Paris ( 59704 )
;
-
Université Paris Sciences et Lettres ( 564132 )
;
-
École des hautes études en sciences sociales ( 99539 )
;
-
École des Ponts ParisTech ( 301545 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( 441569 )
;
-
Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement UMR1393 ( 577435 )
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
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Date de production/écriture |
2019-12
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Domaine(s) |
-
Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
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Mots-clés (JEL) |
-
J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E1 - General Aggregative Models/E.E1.E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O16 - Financial Markets • Saving and Capital Investment • Corporate Finance and Governance
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Référence interne |
-
PSE Working Papers n°2019-68
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Mots-clés |
en
Financial efficiency, Development, MENA region, Demographic transition
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