Format du dépôt |
Fichier |
Type de dépôt |
Pré-publication, Document de travail |
Titre |
en
Shutdown policies and conflict worldwide
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Résumé |
en
We provide evidence on the impact of Covid-19 restriction policies on conflicts worldwide. We combine daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of coronavirus to study how demonstrations and violent events vary following shutdown policies. We use the staggered implementation of restriction policies across countries to identify the dynamic effects in an event study framework. Our results show that imposing a nationwide shutdown reduces the number of demonstrations, which suggests that public demonstrations are hampered by the rising cost of participation. However, the reduction is short-lived, as the number of demonstrations are back to their pre-restriction levels in two months. In contrast, we observe that the purported increase in mobilization or coordination costs, following the imposition of Covid-19 restrictions, has no impact on violent events that involve organized armed groups. Instead, we find that the number of events, on average, increase slightly following the implementation of the restriction policies. The rise in violent events is most prominent in poorer countries, with higher levels of polarization, and in authoritarian countries. We discuss the potential channels that can explain this heterogeneity.
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Auteur(s)
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Nicolas Berman
1
, Mathieu Couttenier
2
, Nathalie Monnet
3
, Rohit Ticku
4
1
AMSE -
Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques
( 526949 )
- 5-9 Boulevard Bourdet
CS 50498
13205 Marseille Cedex 1
- France
-
École des hautes études en sciences sociales UMR7316 ( 99539 )
;
-
Aix Marseille Université UMR7316 ( 198056 )
;
-
École Centrale de Marseille UMR7316 ( 300415 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR7316 ( 441569 )
2
GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne -
Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne
( 1169842 )
- 93, chemin des Mouilles 69130 Écully 6, rue Basse des Rives 42023 Saint-Étienne cedex 02
- France
-
École normale supérieure de Lyon ( 6818 )
;
-
Université Lumière - Lyon 2 ( 33804 )
;
-
Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne ( 300284 )
;
-
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique UMR5824 ( 441569 )
3
UNIGE -
Université de Genève = University of Geneva
( 154620 )
- 24 rue du Général-Dufour CH - 1211 Genève 4
Suisse
- Suisse
4
Institute for the Study of Religion, Economics and Society, Chapman University
( 1041783 )
- États-Unis
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Langue du document |
Anglais
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Date de production/écriture |
2021-01-26
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Domaine(s) |
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Sciences de l'Homme et Société/Economies et finances
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Mots-clés (JEL) |
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D - Microeconomics/D.D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making/D.D7.D74 - Conflict • Conflict Resolution • Alliances • Revolutions
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook/E.E6.E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
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J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J1 - Demographic Economics/J.J1.J18 - Public Policy
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Référence interne |
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Working paper AMSE 2021-09
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Financement |
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Nathalie Monnet acknowledges financial support from the Swiss National Research Foundation (grant Economics of Conflict and Violence P0GEP1-175125 and grant Land Concentration and Rural Poverty, 100018/178902).
-
Rohit Ticku acknowledges financial support from the Institute for the Study of Religion, Economics and Society, Chapman University
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Projet(s) ANR |
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Mots-clés |
en
Covid-19, coronavirus, conflict, violence
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