Predictability of Scrub Typhus Incidences Time Series in Thailand - HAL-SHS - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société Access content directly
Journal Articles Engineering Proceedings Year : 2021

Predictability of Scrub Typhus Incidences Time Series in Thailand

Abstract

Scrub typhus, an infectious disease caused by a bacterium transmitted by “chigger” mites, constitutes a public health problem in Thailand. Predicting epidemic peaks would allow implementing preventive measures locally. This study analyses the predictability of the time series of incidence of scrub typhus aggregated at the provincial level. After stationarizing the time series, the evaluation of the Hurst exponents indicates the provinces where the epidemiological dynamics present a long memory and are predictable. The predictive performances of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average model), ARFIMA (autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average) and fractional Brownian motion models are evaluated. The results constitute the reference level for the predictability of the incidence data of this zoonosis.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
engproc-05-00044-v2.pdf (1.38 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Publisher files allowed on an open archive
Licence : CC BY - Attribution

Dates and versions

halshs-03290702 , version 1 (06-09-2023)

Licence

Attribution

Identifiers

Cite

Valeria Bondarenko, Pierre Mazzega, Claire Lajaunie. Predictability of Scrub Typhus Incidences Time Series in Thailand. Engineering Proceedings, 2021, 5 (1), pp.44. ⟨10.3390/engproc2021005044⟩. ⟨halshs-03290702⟩
56 View
2 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More