Predictability of Scrub Typhus Incidences Time Series in Thailand - HAL-SHS - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Engineering Proceedings Année : 2021

Predictability of Scrub Typhus Incidences Time Series in Thailand

Résumé

Scrub typhus, an infectious disease caused by a bacterium transmitted by “chigger” mites, constitutes a public health problem in Thailand. Predicting epidemic peaks would allow implementing preventive measures locally. This study analyses the predictability of the time series of incidence of scrub typhus aggregated at the provincial level. After stationarizing the time series, the evaluation of the Hurst exponents indicates the provinces where the epidemiological dynamics present a long memory and are predictable. The predictive performances of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average model), ARFIMA (autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average) and fractional Brownian motion models are evaluated. The results constitute the reference level for the predictability of the incidence data of this zoonosis.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
engproc-05-00044-v2.pdf (1.38 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte
Licence : CC BY - Paternité

Dates et versions

halshs-03290702 , version 1 (06-09-2023)

Licence

Paternité

Identifiants

Citer

Valeria Bondarenko, Pierre Mazzega, Claire Lajaunie. Predictability of Scrub Typhus Incidences Time Series in Thailand. Engineering Proceedings, 2021, 5 (1), pp.44. ⟨10.3390/engproc2021005044⟩. ⟨halshs-03290702⟩
81 Consultations
14 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More