Expectations and full employment : Hansen, Samuelson and Lange
Résumé
From the outset, expectations were a central part of the first macrodynamic models and early
growth theories. In the 1940s, a third line of research emerged which questioned the capacity of an
economy to reach full-employment equilibrium. Starting with Alvin Hansen (1938) and culminating with
Oskar Lange (1944), the crux of the debate evolved from the existence of full employment equilibrium
to analysis of its stability, suggesting an increased role for expectations and finally challenging the
economic system’s global stability. The present paper traces those debates through the contributions of
Hansen, Paul Samuelson and Lange. Using archives materials, we show that while Samuelson’s analysis
of instability remained implicit, his correspondence reveals that he encouraged Oskar Lange to examine
it more carefully. Lange’s results are presented in his 1944 Cowles Commission Monograph. We point
out that his contribution cannot be understood in isolation either from his exchanges with Samuelson or
the way that Keynesian ideas were being interpreted in the United States. The paper finally questions
Samuelson’s view on instability and expectations.